9 points What the upheaval in Syria means for Iran, Turkey, Russia, the USA - and Israel
The change of power in Damascus has far-reaching consequences for neighbors such as Israel and Turkey, but the reorganization of the civil war country also plays a role for Iran, Russia and the USA.
08.12.2024, 14:00
09.12.2024, 08:02
SDA
Events are coming thick and fast: in less than two weeks, an alliance of insurgents in Syria has taken control of the most important cities and put Syria's ruler Bashar al-Assad to flight. After almost 14 years of civil war, the next major upheaval is beginning in the Arab country.
Here are the nine most pressing questions - and answers.
Has Assad finally been toppled?
Assad's return to power seems virtually impossible after his flight from Damascus. In recent years, his weak government has only been able to hold on with the support of Russia, Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah and other militias loyal to Iran.
Assad is likely to go into hiding, for example in Moscow, if he survives the escape. The regular army, Assad's most important supporter in his own country, has also announced the end of his government. Syria has been ruled by the Assad clan for decades, with Assad's father Hafez becoming the de facto autocrat after a military coup by the Baath Party in 1970.
What will happen in Syria now?
That is unclear. The alliance of insurgents that has taken control of large areas, including the capital Damascus, is led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It previously had links to the terrorist organizations Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda. However, it later publicly renounced them.
Leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has been using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa for a few days now and has adopted a more diplomatic and conciliatory tone. However, the HTS was previously also accused of torture and executions. The EU and the USA classify HTS as a terrorist organization.
Will the HTS take power in Syria on its own?
No. HTS is the most powerful of the rebel groups that have joined forces with other groups to fight Assad. After the fall of the Assad government, however, the rivalry between these groups could become more pronounced again and lead to new battles in a power vacuum.
There are also other rebel groups in the north that are supported by Turkey, Kurdish militias in the north-east and cells of the terrorist militia IS that carry out attacks. It is unclear which group or possibly a new alliance could take power and what role the soldiers and other security forces that have so far remained loyal to Assad will play.
What does the overthrow mean for Iran?
According to critics, Assad is the fall of one of the biggest and most brutal rulers in the Middle East, who used poison gas and torture against his own people, among other things.
The falling Assad monuments are reminiscent of the fall of the long-term rulers in Iraq and Libya, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Many Syrians are celebrating Assad's end, while others fear a new, different tyranny under the insurgent Islamists. ́
Iran is losing an important strategic ally in Assad. Tehran financed the Assad government and helped it militarily, also in order to use Syria as a corridor to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.
With the change of power in Syria, Iran's Middle East policy - and in particular the fight against arch-enemy Israel - has reached an impasse. Critics accuse the Iranian leadership of having wasted billions of US dollars with its miscalculation in Syria.
Some even see the fall of Assad as the major turning point for the so-called "axis of resistance" that Iran has formed against Israel. After the killing of Hamas foreign leader Ismail Haniya and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and now Assad's escape, three top figures of the "axis" were eliminated within a few months.
A member of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), who kept Assad's government alive for a long time, compared the events in Syria to the fall of the Berlin Wall, an Iran reporter told the New York Times.
How is the uprising affecting Israel?
Israel is watching developments in its northern neighbor Syria with great vigilance. The fall of Assad is seen as a bitter setback for Israel's arch-enemy Iran.
Because the important land connection between Iran and the Mediterranean has been cut, it is also unlikely that Hezbollah, against which Israel waged war until a ceasefire a week and a half ago, will be able to rearm. All of this plays into Israel's hands.
From Israel's perspective, the collapse of Assad's rule is part of a regional chain reaction that began with the terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas and other extremist groups on October 7, 2023.
What could follow in the region?
Israeli analyst Udi Evental speaks of a "regional earthquake" caused by the fall of Assad. He now expects several possible "aftershocks" in the region. The Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon have already been largely defeated.
The "ring of fire" with which Iranian supporters have surrounded Israel for a good decade has been practically completely destroyed by the events in Syria. Evental now sees better chances for a ceasefire and a hostage deal in the Gaza Strip after more than a year of devastating war in the coastal strip.
"Hamas has lost the support of the [Iranian] axis, is left alone and is signaling growing interest in a settlement." This offers the opportunity to "clear the air" before Donald Trump takes office as US President in January, so that they can "focus together on the central threat: the Iranian nuclear program".
What role do Russia and Turkey play?
For years, developments in Syria have no longer been initiated in Damascus, but in Moscow and Ankara as well as Tehran. Russia had kept Assad in power during the civil war with airstrikes, but reduced its number of troops in the country due to the war in Ukraine.
Moscow is nevertheless likely to try to maintain its important air and naval bases on the Mediterranean coast, not least because of their proximity to Europe and to safeguard its interests in Africa. It is unclear to what extent Russia and Turkey, which occupies territories in northern Syria, could reach agreements with the new rulers in the country in the future.
Experts suspect that Turkey at least approved the offensive in order to exert pressure on Assad. The latter had previously rejected normalization with neighbouring Turkey - to the displeasure of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Among other things, Erdogan wants to return refugees to Syria due to the tensions in his own country. Erdogan has also made it clear that he will not tolerate an expansion of the presence of Kurdish militias on the border with Turkey.
What about the USA?
For its part, the USA still has several hundred soldiers stationed in Syria to fight the IS terrorist militia. But they were also a kind of Western wedge deep in Iran's sphere of influence.
After Trump took office in Washington, who had already ordered a US troop withdrawal from Syria in 2019, the military balance of power there could change again.
Trump has now made it clear that he does not want the USA to get involved in the crisis in Syria in any way because it is "not our fight".
What will happen to the millions of Syrian refugees?
Syria has by no means been a safe country to return to in recent years. However, those who fled from Assad's troops, his allies or other armed groups during the civil war from 2011 onwards could now consider returning.
More than three million Syrian refugees live in neighboring Turkey - and many more in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt. More than 14 million people were displaced during the civil war, around half of them in their own country. Around 700,000 Syrians live in Germany as refugees or asylum seekers.
