Four flashpoints, many conflicts Why the war will only really start if Assad falls

Even if Bashar al-Assad were to abdicate today, Syria could not hope for peace: Major problems are bubbling under the surface, which would further fuel the civil war.

The Syrian civil war is complicated. There are many different factions that are constantly fighting each other. There are also various foreign actors with their own agendas.

Even simplified accounts simply do not want to be clear. This mixture is also the reason why the conflict has been raging for 13 years without one party being able to prevail.

But since the Haiʾat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS) attacked the government troops on November 27 and other opposition groups joined in, the battle lines have been drawn. Whether this offensive can topple Bashar al-Assad's regime remains to be seen. The only thing that is clear is that his defeat would not bring peace to the country. On the contrary.

There are four conflicts simmering beneath the surface in Syria.

The Alawites are a religious community close to the Shiites and make up around 15 percent of the Syrian population. Nevertheless, they have been disproportionately represented in the government and the military since the Assad family took control of the country in 1970.

In the decades that followed, there were many conflicts in which the Alawite-dominated Syrian army defended the state against the Sunni majority, which makes up around 74 percent of the population - such as the massacre in Hama in 1982, when tens of thousands died in a Muslim Brotherhood uprising.

Whether justified or not, the Alawites will be held partly responsible for the Assad regime. After his fall, they would not only have to fear revanchism, but also religious persecution, because Sunni radicals regard Shiites as infidels.

Two Kurdish groups currently control around a third of Syrian territory. One is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Sunni and Aramaic militias are also involved in the Kurdish-led alliance.

On the other hand, there are the People's Defense Units (YPG): Turkey classifies the militia as a terrorist organization due to its alleged proximity to the PKK. The USA, on the other hand, has supported the Kurdish groups since they helped to eliminate the so-called Islamic State in Syria. This also applies to the current conflict, as the airstrike in the video below shows.

The Kurdish fighters are apparently currently mainly active in the east of the country: the American A-10 Warthog in the video above allegedly attacked a convoy near Deir ez-Zor that was supposed to bring Shiite units from Iraq to the front. There is also fighting on the ground around the city on the Euphrates.

In the east, the Kurds are fighting against Shiite militias and in the north against Assad's army, but they are also fighting battles with other opposition members who are supported by Turkey.

Ankara is desperate to prevent the ethnic group in Syria from becoming too strong, proclaiming its own state and encouraging the Kurdish population in its own country to join them.

Turkey supports the two largest opposition groups, which are also said to have received training from the Ukrainian military intelligence service GUR, aka HUR: In addition to the aforementioned HTS, which instigated the recent offensive, the Syrian National Army (SNA) has the greatest potential.

It is probably highly led by Ankara, is well equipped and has established the buffer zone near Idlib in northern Syria for Turkey, which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs in order to avoid having to take in refugees. The SNA has repeatedly been accused of violating the laws of war. It is accused of torture, kidnapping, rape and murder.

The HTS is much more radical. Its name Haiʾat Tahrir ash-Sham means "Committee for the Liberation of the Levant". The group is an alliance of various Islamist organizations and sees itself as the successor to the al-Nusra Front, which was disbanded in 2016 due to its proximity to al-Qaeda.

The former al-Nusra boss now leads the HTS: Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani leads "with an iron fist", according to the NZZ: "Political opponents and journalists were arrested, killed and tortured, protests were violently suppressed." Recently, the almost 40-year-old has appeared moderate, but the NZZ doubts his change of heart.

Although HTS and SNA, as well as the Kurdish YPG and SDF, want to depose Assad, they are fighting each other during the current offensive. There are videos that allegedly show executions of Kurdish fighters. They are not only hated because Ankara wants them to be, but also because they want to build a secular welfare state.

Syria is ethnically diverse. An estimated 50 percent are Arabs, 15 percent Alawites and 10 percent Kurds. 25 percent are made up of smaller groups, some of which are also Christian. Around 10 percent of the population belong to the Christian minority.

The jihadist prince al-Jaulani of the HTS is - still - tolerant: "Don't cut down any trees, don't frighten any children and don't instill fear in our people, regardless of their religion," he urges his people before the conquest of Aleppo. The fact that his message is specially translated into English shows that al-Jaulani does not want to scare the horses now.

After the capture of Aleppo by HTS and other groups, the Islamists allowed the Christians to hold church services: Preparations for Christmas also proceeded normally, says a bishop after the capture of the city. It is doubtful, however, that this will remain the case in the long term.

The Pentagon classifies the HTS as an al-Qaeda-affiliated organization. The USA offered a bounty of 10 million dollars for its boss al-Jaulani back in 2013. According to his interpretation of Islam, secular Kurds, Shiite Alawites, but also Christians and Druze have no right to exist in the kind of state he wants.

Even if Assad falls, Syria's future looks bleak.

Ticker on the civil war in SyriaRebels apparently surround major city of Hama