Situation in Russia Things are not going well for Putin

Philipp Dahm

26.8.2024

The pressure on Vladimir Putin is increasing: The invasion in Kursk not only threatens his soldiers, but also his finances - and boosts the morale of the Ukrainians. The only good news for the Kremlin comes from Donetsk.

No time? blue News summarizes for you

  • Disastrous drone attacks in Russia: an oil depot has been burning for eight days, an ammunition depot has been blown up.
  • In the latter attack, a new drone with a jet engine could have been used.
  • At least 21 Russian military airfields are reportedly within its range.
  • Update Kursk: Koronevo is apparently about to fall.
  • The invasion is boosting the morale of the Ukrainian population, the military and also the helpers in the West.
  • In Sudzha, Kiev has its "foot on the neck of Gazprom", which contributes a lot to Moscow's budget.
  • In Kharkiv, Kiev's army is recapturing territory.
  • The only good news for Vladimir Putin comes from the Donbass.

Today's massive Russian drone and missile attack on Kiev and other targets in Ukraine was actually expected last weekend, as the country celebrated its Independence Day on August 24.

Over 1000 drones and 60 missiles were reportedly fired. Reports of deaths, injuries and damage have been rare so far: the Ukrainians are not doing Moscow the favor of reporting the hits via social media - and thus making the Russian army's job easier when it comes to evaluating their attack.

As a rule, the majority of Kremlin missiles do not reach their target, as the following three X-Posts show: Sometimes the missiles veer off course and hurtle into a body of water, sometimes a drone is brought down by an Mi-8 MG and sometimes an anti-aircraft gun manages to hit a cruise missile.

So Vladimir Putin's attack comes too late and will probably not achieve what the Kremlin is dreaming of. This is not the only bad news for the 71-year-old.

Oil depot on fire for eight days, ammunition depot explodes

The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets are a major problem. For example, the Proletarsk oil depot in Rostov Oblast has now been burning for the eighth day in a row: the fire department is simply unable to bring the fire under control.

Kiev's army also struck in the Ostrogoshsky district in Voronezh oblast: an ammunition depot was hit there on 24 August - with devastating consequences, as satellite images show: 5,000 tons are said to have been blown up. A new weapon may have been used in the attack.

A Ukrainian minister said on Independence Day that the new drone called Palyanytsya had already been used. Palyanytsya actually refers to a particular Ukrainian bread. What makes the new weapon so unpleasant is that it has a jet engine.

21 military airports within range of the new drone

This makes the Paljanyzja much more difficult to intercept. And while the range of the new weapon is secret, Ukrainian media show no fewer than 21 Russian military airfields that are said to be within striking distance of the new drone - see X-Post below.

Putin, on the other hand, can hardly use his "best weapon" against the enemy in Kursk, notes "Business Insider": it's about the glide bombs, of which Russia is said to produce 30,000 per month. Mark Cancian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains this with the fact that Russian airspace control is so poor: Putin's air force runs the risk of hitting its own people.

Other experts also confirm to "Business Insider" that Moscow is holding back in Kursk. In Ukraine, on the other hand, the operation is unproblematic because the front there is so static and inaccuracies do not have such a great impact. In the past week alone, 750 glide bombs have fallen in Ukraine, reports Kiev.

"It seemed as if Ukraine was falling"

The invasion in Kursk is likely to continue to cause Putin sleepless nights. Regardless of its outcome, it has already achieved a number of objectives. "It seemed as if Ukraine was going to fall," says Oleksandr Lytvynenko, looking back on the time before Kursk. Russia had conquered "100 to 200 meters per day" - "very slowly, but apparently unstoppably".

"But now the Secretary of the National Defense and Security Council is optimistic again," writes the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI): Not only the military, but also the population is motivated again by the successes in Kursk, analyzes the London-based think tank. At the same time, it would also show the West that its military aid has been well invested.

Conquered territory and main thrusts of the Ukrainian army in Kursk.
Conquered territory and main thrusts of the Ukrainian army in Kursk.
Youtube/Reporting from Ukraine

"The invasion of Kursk is intended to offset Russia's ruthless advantages in terms of economy and size with surprise, maneuver and Ukraine's tactical sophistication," summarizes RUSI. And, incidentally, by attacking its heartland, Kiev is showing the whole world that Putin's red lines are not set in stone.

Kursk: Moscow's army and Gazprom are lagging behind

Putin is not pressing the red nuclear button, even if the motherland is under attack. And the enemy continues to advance: In order to capture the city of Koronevo, Ukraine has established a bridgehead east of the city near the settlement of Zhuravli, which lies behind the lakes there and the small river Reka Krepna.

From the bridgehead in Zhuravli, the Ukrainian army can flank Koronevo.
From the bridgehead in Zhuravli, the Ukrainian army can flank Koronevo.
Youtube/Reporting from Ukraine

The bridgehead has opened up a vector of attack for Kiev from the east, but at the same time the armed forces have also advanced to the west of Koronevo - and immediately in front of it. Because the Russians have hardly any forces in the area, they were withdrawn from Koronevo to protect other areas. That was a mistake, reports Reporting from Ukraine: Koronevo is now allegedly on the verge of falling.

Too few forces: Moscow withdrew its troops from Koronevo to protect other settlements. This is now apparently backfiring.
Too few forces: Moscow withdrew its troops from Koronevo to protect other settlements. This is now apparently backfiring.
Youtube/Reporting from Ukraine

With the capture of Sudzha in Kursk, Kiev now also controls the access point to the last pipeline that pumps gas directly to Europe. However, the gas tap has not yet been turned off: "Ukraine has its foot on Gazprom's throat," says the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Analysis in amazement. The company's profits are essential for the Kremlin's budget - and the potential trouble for Putin is great.

Putin's only ray of hope

Because Moscow has withdrawn troops from Kharkiv to send them to Kursk, Kiev's army has regained territory in the Ukrainian oblast. However, this is Zelenskyi's only success on Ukrainian soil: Again, the only good news for Putin at the moment comes from the Donbass.

"Russia is ignoring the Kursk invasion. Russian regiments are concentrating on a major Ukrainian prize: Pokrovsk", summarizes "Forbes". The city is very important because important enemy supply routes run in its vicinity: Holding Pokrovsk is critical.

But despite the use of Western weapons, the Russians are said to be less than eleven kilometers away from Pokrovsk. Fierce fighting is also raging in Toretsk, which has long since reached the city itself.