Situation in Russia Kiev turns the tables in Kursk - and presents Putin with a dilemma
What are Ukraine's goals with the Kursk offensive? Here you can find out why the Kursk nuclear power plant could be decisive for the war, why Putin is facing a dilemma - and why Kiev is giving him his own medicine.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- On Monday, the front was still static: before the US election, no one expected a Ukrainian offensive.
- "First-class troops and first-class equipment": This is why Kiev's Kursk advance is not a PR stunt.
- This is why the conquest of the Kursk nuclear power plant could be decisive for the war - and why it is also unlikely.
- Neuralgic points in Sijah: Ukraine has already achieved this.
- Putin's dilemma: sacrifice recruits and risk protest or withdraw the army and call off its own offensives?
- With this approach, Kiev is turning the tables on the tactics Russia used in the Kharkiv offensive.
At the beginning of this week, the fronts in Ukraine still appear to be hardened. Little is moving: only in Donetsk is the Russian army painstakingly eating its way forward. November 5 hangs over the battlefield like a sword of Damocles.
Russia wants to cover as much ground as possible before the US presidential election in order to have negotiating leverage in the event of Donald Trump winning the election and a subsequent peace deal. Ukraine is saving its strength - also in the event that the Republican moves into the White House - and further arms deliveries are receding into the distance.
Kiev's forces crossed the border into Russia on Tuesday, August 6. First 300, then 1000 soldiers enter the Russian heartland, as Moscow admits. Over the next three days, the authorities there announced no fewer than six times that those Ukrainian units had been defeated.
"They wouldn't be deploying first-class troops if they weren't serious"
But Kiev's advance is not a PR stunt. The border defenses are poor, even though three billion roubles have been earmarked for their expansion. This is reminiscent of Russia's offensive in Kharkiv and a corresponding scandal on the Ukrainian side. Because Kursk is mainly occupied by recruits who have to serve in the army for a year, have no experience and are unmotivated, the Russians are surrendering in droves.
The Ukrainians have come to stay - at least for the time being. There are said to be around 10,000 soldiers and 600 vehicles crossing the border. They are advancing with drone defense and western equipment such as the Marder and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
They are fighting their way along three roads that secure their supplies. At the same time, their own drones and artillery are firing on the enemy's supplies.
British security expert Michael Clarke knows that competent Ukrainian units are at work: "They wouldn't be deploying first-class troops and first-class equipment if they weren't serious," he tells Sky News, adding that minesweepers and sappers are also deployed and are already building fortifications.
Kursk nuclear power plant could be decisive for the war
What does Kiev want to achieve with the offensive? A worthwhile target is the Kursk nuclear power plant, which is only 50 kilometers from the border. The reason: Russia's third-largest nuclear power plant is the key supplier of energy to the central Black Earth region - where 48 percent of iron ore, 13.5 percent of steel, 19 percent of ferrous metals, 9 percent of meat and 19.5 percent of Russian sugar is produced.
In other words, if the Kursk nuclear power plant were to go offline, Vladimir Putin's arms industry would have a serious problem. However, given its importance, it is unlikely that Kiev would carry out such a coup - or that the Kremlin would allow it. But the scenario cannot be ruled out either.
Perhaps Kiev has already achieved its goal: the captured Sudzha is not only home to an important Gazprom distribution hub for natural gas pipelines, but also an important power line and a railroad line connecting Lgov and Belgorod.
Putin's dilemma
For Vladimir Putin, Kiev's offensive is an absurdity that reflects badly on the president domestically: can he not defend the homeland? Not pushing back the invaders could be interpreted as weakness. This presents the 71-year-old with a dilemma.
If he fights the invaders with Russian recruits, he faces the threat of heavy losses due to their military naivety. This could stir up unrest in those parts of the population that have had no previous contact with the war - such as the urban elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
His army, on the other hand, recruits its soldiers with high bonuses, which - in addition to the possible "death bonus" - sometimes free their families from financial hardship. The Kremlin cannot expect any protest or resistance from this segment. The problem: if Putin withdraws the soldiers, he will lack them for his offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv.
Kremlin must withdraw troops
The man from St. Petersburg has obviously made up his mind. On the one hand, Michael Clark has noticed that Russian troops deployed to Kursk have worn-out equipment - as opposed to recruits. At the same time, there are reports that the Russians are withdrawing from Vovchansk in Kharkiv.
It is interesting to note that Kiev has thus turned the tables: Russia's offensive in Kharkiv has tied up Ukrainian troops, which has paved the way for Moscow's army in Donetsk. While the Ukrainians had to defend their border, their opponent withdrew posts - in the false expectation that it would not dare to send ground troops towards Russia.
Now the Ukrainians are in Putin's homeland, and he in turn has to regroup soldiers. His motto that occupied territories must also be annexed has been reduced to absurdity. Kiev's armed forces continue to advance in Kursk. And the week in Ukraine ends very differently than it began.
