Situation picture Russia Kiev prepares for Moscow's counterattack in Kursk

The Ukrainian army has established itself in Kursk and trapped around 3000 Russians: Read here how Kiev is filleting the area, how Vladimir Putin intends to respond and what this means for the rest of the front.

According to their commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi , the Ukrainian forces have advanced 28 to 35 kilometers since the start of the offensive in Kursk, capturing 1263 square kilometers and 93 settlements.

And more Russian territory will be added: To the west of the conquered territory is an area of around 700 square kilometers that has been cut off from supplies since Kiev damaged the three bridges that cross the Seim River. "Thousands of troops are probably trapped," marvels "The War Zone" (TWZ): 3000 are said to be trapped.

Those Russian troops are not to be envied: They have to reckon with attacks from the Ukrainian border, but also with an incursion through their own line of defense, which is marked in red in the X-Post above. Kiev is in no hurry to fight them: the longer they are cut off from supplies, the sooner they will surrender, so the calculation goes.

3000 Russians trapped: "They will not fight"

Theoretically, the Kremlin still has the option of sending help via a pontoon bridge. In practice, however, the pioneers cannot be hidden: Drones detect any attempts immediately and nip them in the bud with the help of artillery.

It is not to be expected that the trapped forces will put up stubborn resistance: Reporting from Ukraine reports a limited Ukrainian attack on Tyotkino, in which the Russians immediately retreated behind the river and destroyed smaller bridges. However, there is now a threat of attacks in their rear and from the south.

The position cannot be held - and the real offensive has not even begun yet. The Russian troops consist mainly of recruits and members of the National Guard. "They won't fight," says a TWZ source. "Most of them are inexperienced and demotivated."

"Ukraine is now moving from the offensive to the defensive"

The Ukrainians are clearly not planning to evacuate Kursk any time soon: the armed forces have set up a command post in Sudzha, which is headed by General Eduard Moskalev. Its task is to maintain security in the occupied territory and ensure supplies to the population. The post office is considering setting up a branch in the city.

It is unlikely that Kiev's army will advance further east. One reason for this is the ever-increasing distances for supplies, which are the basis of a successful military operation. At best, the capture of further territory is worthwhile on the border.

"Ukraine is now moving from the offensive to the defensive," Markus Reisner also assesses the situation on n-tv: Kiev's forces are now gathering to prepare for the upcoming counterattack by the enemy, the colonel of the Austrian Armed Forces believes.

What is Russia doing now?

What could the counterattack look like? Moscow needs men, says Colonel Reisner: in order to attack the 5,000 to 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers, the Kremlin would have to muster 20,000 to 25,000 combatants. Forces from Zaporizhia, Kherson and Kharkiv are only slowly being brought in.

Moscow itself reports that 2860 opponents have been killed or injured in Kursk since 6 August, 41 tanks and 213 armored vehicles have been destroyed - and six rocket launchers, including three Himars, have been hit. In one case, however, it appears to have been proven that the Kremlin fell for a Czech-made inflatable decoy.

Russian airstrikes are a problem for the Ukrainians: Putin's air force is not only attacking in Kursk, but also across the border in Sumy on a broad front. Kiev is responding with increased drone attacks on Russian military airports.

Effects in the north and south

The invasion in Kursk is now having consequences across the entire front line. Probably at Vladimir Putin's request, Alexander Lukashenko has moved a third of the Belarus troops to the border in order to force Kiev to send troops to the border in the north. At the same time, Moscow is increasing the pressure in the Donbass and continuing to eat away at heavy losses.

After the Russian capture of New York, Torezk is about to fall. Chassiv Yar remains a focal point due to its strategic importance, as does Pokrovsk, which the Ukrainians had to evacuate. What is hard for the defenders is that , according to the Financial Times , their ammunition in Donetsk has been rationed to keep shells in reserve for Kursk.

While the Russians are likely to continue to celebrate successes in the Donbass, the tide could be turning on the front in the south after two regiments each are said to have left Kherson and Zaporizhia. The Ukrainian army is reportedly already taking advantage of this and is now advancing in the south. However, this has yet to be confirmed.