Swing states 2024 These 7 states will decide the US election

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin play a key role in the US election. blue News presents the states.

Around 240 million people are eligible to vote in the 2024 US election, but only a comparatively small number of them are likely to ultimately decide who will be the next president.

Experts believe that there are only a handful of so-called "swing states" that will be won by either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.

Seven of these states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - are considered to be decisive for a move into the White House. Both campaign teams are therefore focusing on undecided voters in these states.

The Democrats won the presidency in 2020 for the first time since the 1990s with the support of the Grand Canyon State, which narrowly voted for the party's candidate.

Immigration a point of contention

Arizona, which borders Mexico, has become a central issue in the national immigration debate, although the number of border crossings has declined in recent months.

Trump has repeatedly criticized Harris' record on immigration policy as she was tasked by President Joe Biden to defuse the border crisis.

He has also promised to carry out the "largest deportation operation" in US history should he become president again.

Abortion laws at issue

Arizona has also seen fierce clashes over access to abortion after the state's Republicans unsuccessfully tried to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on abortions.

Since 2022, when the US Supreme Court overturned a landmark ruling that granted women a constitutional right to abortion, the issue has become even more polarizing.

The roadmap to the US electionWhen will it be clear who has won?

Point of contention: election interference

The list of crucial swing states largely coincides with the places where Trump-backed Republican officials tried to prevent Biden's victory in the 2020 election.

In Fulton County, Georgia, Trump is facing one of four criminal trials on suspicion of election meddling (Trump was convicted in one case in the first instance, while the other trials are still ongoing).

He and 18 other people are accused of trying to prevent his narrow defeat against Biden in the state with illegal tricks. Trump denies any wrongdoing and the case will not go to trial before the election.

Struggle for African-American votes

A third of Georgia's population is African-American - one of the largest proportions of black residents in the US - and this demographic is thought to have played a key role in helping Biden win the state for the Democrats in 2020.

There has been talk of some disillusionment with Biden among black voters - all the more reason for the Harris campaign team to hope they can still win their support.

Ticker for the US election campaignClose result: statistics guru simulates election 80,000 times +++ Another candidacy in 2028? Trump "will not go"

The Great Lakes State has chosen the winning presidential candidate in the past two elections. Despite support for Biden in 2020, he has become a symbol of nationwide opposition to the president's support for Israel during the war in Gaza.

Gaza conflict a point of contention

During the Democratic primary in Michigan in February, more than 100,000 voters chose the "uncommitted" option on their ballots, part of a campaign by activists who want the US government to stop military aid to Israel.

Notably, Michigan has the largest proportion of Arab-Americans in the country - a demographic whose support for Biden was at risk. Harris, however, has taken a tougher tone on Israel, and some Gaza protesters have told the BBC they hope she will be more responsive to Arab concerns.

Trump has emphasized the importance of the state to his potential path to victory. Referring to events in the Middle East, he called on Israel to end the war against Hamas in Gaza, but to "get it done quickly".

The Silver State has voted for the Democrats in recent elections, but there are signs of a possible turnaround by the Republicans.

Trump had a big lead over Biden in previous polls, but the latest averages released by poll tracking firm 538 show that lead has shrunk since Harris was nominated. Democrats had hoped that a candidate with greater appeal to younger and more diverse voters would narrow the gap.

Both candidates are trying to win over the state's important Latino population.

Creed and vote catchingHow Trump's Republicans are fighting for Latino votes

Economic growth a point of contention

Despite the fact that the US economy has grown strongly and created jobs since Biden took office, Nevada's recovery from the Covid pandemic has been slower than elsewhere.

At 5.1%, the state has the third-highest unemployment rate in the country, after California and the District of Columbia.

Should Trump return to power, he has promised a return to a lower-tax, less-regulatory agenda, which could be attractive to voters.

North Carolina borders Georgia and shares some of its most important electoral issues with Georgia, as well as those of and with Arizona, another Sun Belt state.

Polls appear to have tightened in the Tar Heel State since Harris' nomination at the top of the Democratic ticket, with some analysts now describing the decision here as a "nail-biter".

That could explain Trump's decision to hold his first outdoor rally there since the assassination attempt in July. "This state is a very, very important state to win," he told the crowd gathered there.

Trump won North Carolina in 2020, but only by just over 70,000 votes, which has further fueled Democratic hopes that this "purple" state (one that votes both red and blue) could be up for grabs this election year.

The Keystone State is considered by some experts to be the biggest prize on the electoral map. It was littered with campaign stops by both Harris and Trump. The two candidates and their running mates have made more than 50 appearances there since mid-July.

Pennsylvania proved decisive in the 2020 election when it supported Biden. Along with Michigan and Wisconsin, it is a central focus of Harris' campaign.

Trump survived the first of two assassination attempts in Pennsylvania. He has also campaigned there doggedly - and the state is at the center of a controversial cash distribution to voters by his supporter Elon Musk.

Inflation at issue

The economy is a key issue here, as it is in many other places. Inflation rose nationwide under the Biden administration before gradually declining.

Pennsylvanians are not unique among Americans when it comes to feeling the cost of living pressures due to inflation. But food prices have risen faster in their state than any other, according to market research firm Datasembly.

The high inflation could hurt Harris across the U.S., as polls suggest she has given voters an unfavorable view of the economy.

Trump has tried to tie his rival to the Biden economy - despite the latest official figures showing annual growth of 2.8%.

The BadgerState voted for the winning presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020, with a lead of just over 20,000 votes in each case.

Third parties and alternative candidates in dispute

Polls had indicated that the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not only hurting Harris, but above all Trump: Kennedy suspended his campaign at the end of August and has been supporting Trump ever since.

Democrats fought to have Green Party candidate Jill Stein removed from the ballot in Wisconsin, saying the party had not complied with state election laws, and have also filed an election complaint against Cornel West, a left-leaning academic.

Trump has described that state as "really important ... if we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing." The Republican summer party convention was held in Milwaukee.

Harris held a rally in the same city when her party officially nominated her as the Democratic presidential candidate.

More about the US elections

Gut feelings, statistics, propheciesThis is how the US election will turn out next Tuesday

US correspondent assesses the situation"Trump has a lot to lose"

3 aspectsWhat a second Trump term would mean for Switzerland