US correspondent assesses the situation "Trump has a lot to lose"

Helene Laube reports from the USA for blue News: in this interview, the Swiss journalist talks about the emotional situation ahead of the election, lists the most important issues and reveals how high she believes the potential for violence is.

Helene, when did you move to the USA and for what reason?

That was a while ago. I landed here in San Francisco in October 2000. The "Financial Times Deutschland" (FTD) sent me here as a correspondent, and the newspaper was unfortunately discontinued in 2012 - I stayed. One of my first stories back then was the presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush.

There was a long dispute about the election result in 2000.

Bush won with a difference of just under 540 votes in Florida, which is still disputed today. The decision took ages, I think it was five weeks. And in the end, it wasn't the voters who decided the next president, but the nine justices of the US Supreme Court. That foreshadowed the battles for the 2020 election and probably for this election too.

Have you only lived in California or have you lived elsewhere?

Since 2000, I've always lived here in the Bay Area in various neighborhoods in San Francisco - and also once in Sausalito, on the other side of the Golden Gate Bridge. But I've traveled a lot for my work.

Please describe the neighborhood where you live now.

The neighborhood is called Buena Vista and borders Haight-Ashbury, which is particularly popular with tourists. Many of the readers are probably familiar with it. It still looks a bit like it did during the Summer of Love - with lots of second-hand stores and stores where you can buy cannabis pipes. There are still a few scattered hippies around, but today the neighborhood is pretty gentrified.

Who lives there today?

Lots of high earners, tech offices, families, mainly young people. All of San Francisco and the Bay Area are extremely expensive. A few people still stay here because of rent control. I can also only live here because I've had little to no rent increases for x years. Many people can't afford the regular market prices.

Is it dangerous?

No, there are lots of nice corners here and I'm not afraid to go out on the street. Contrary to reports in many national media and the international press, there is not a single open-air drug market here. And there aren't homeless people lying on the street everywhere or attacking passers-by.

That sounds like a very liberal neighborhood: do you have people in your circle of acquaintances who support Trump?

No. But I don't want to rule out the possibility that I know people who are voting for Trump but are not making it known.

Is politics often an issue in the circle you move in?

Yes, actually it always has been, but even more so since 2016. People are super tense, frustrated, insecure and worried that Trump will win and the USA and the whole world will descend into chaos. The nervousness and fear are palpable. But polls show that this is also the case on the Republican side. They are also nervous and afraid of the "radical Democrats" and the end of the USA.

How strong is the polarization? Is there any hope of consensus?

I would say that there is still a political consensus, but there is disagreement about how strong it is. There are issues on which many Democrats and many Republicans agree. An example of this would be the right to abortion, which is supported by a clear majority of voters in both parties. Or the ban on large magazines for the AR-15, the semi-automatic machine guns that are so popular here.

But?

The problem is that far fewer Republicans than Democrats believe that gun violence is a big problem that needs to be at the top of the agenda. Republican voters are not pushing legislation to address it.

Why is the country so divided?

I would call it a perception gap: Most supporters of both parties are wrong about the preferences of the other party's voters. They believe that there are far fewer shared political beliefs than there actually are. This gap is widest among people who are the most politically engaged. They have the most distorted view of the other side's beliefs. But most Americans who don't live in a Democratic bubble like San Francisco or New York City have to somehow come to terms with their parents, neighbors, children's teachers or doctors who vote differently.

Which issues are most important?

For Democrats, healthcare and reproductive rights, including abortion rights, and the economy are at the top of the list. But climate change, environmental policy and gun laws also play an important role. And democracy, because these people are simply afraid that we are drifting towards fascism here.

And on the other side?

For Trump voters, it's the economy, inflation and border security. Immigration is an important issue for both sides, but the solutions and above all the rhetoric are different.

And now the cardinal question: who will win the election?

It is impossible to make a prediction. It's too close.

Do you expect a hanging game or will there be a result quickly?

It's hard to say. Both are conceivable. The first indications come shortly after 7 p.m. from Georgia, so at 4 a.m. on Wednesday morning in your area. And then half an hour later from North Carolina. If Harris does well in those two swing states, it could indicate that the outcome doesn't depend as much on states like Michigan or Pennsylvania, which count much more slowly. It also depends on how quickly the absentee ballots are counted. Several states allow these ballots to arrive and be counted even after the election.

Are you confident in your prediction?

In 2016, it was known on the same night, and in 2020 it took four days. I think it will take longer.

What happens if Donald Trump loses the election?

Four years ago, he clung to power by any means necessary: why wouldn't he try again this time? Especially as he could avoid all criminal court proceedings against him and a possible stay in prison if he moves back into the White House. Trump - a convicted felon - has a lot to lose and his allies and he are preparing everything to challenge the election results legally and otherwise. Especially when the outcome is very close, you have to expect anything.

But?

Four years ago, Trump was still in power. Today, the military and the Department of Justice are under Joe Biden. Trump would also need a lot of support from politicians in the states and in the US Congress. Many refused to support him in 2020, so it would be very difficult for him to go back to the way he did four years ago.

How do you rate the potential for violence?

Relatively high. The rhetoric is escalating, Americans have armed themselves even more. A significant portion of the population is normalizing violence to achieve political goals. There are polls where six, seven, eight percent of Americans support the use of violence. Not just to get Trump back into office, but also to prevent him.