Gut feelings, statistics, prophecies How the US election will turn out next Tuesday

A week before the election, a video from Wisconsin shows how voters in swing states are feeling, while statistics guru Nate Silver points to polling weaknesses. How it turns out? Only one gets specific.

There is still a week to go until the presidential election. The United States is wedged. The country is deeply divided - and two blocs of roughly equal size are more or less irreconcilably opposed to each other.

Due to the peculiarities of the Electoral College, this election will be decided in the seven swing states, where the gap between the candidates was particularly small at the last ballot. In the final week, the parties will do everything they can to reach the few undecideds here, who make up one to two percent of the vote.

Voters are bombarded with advertising, which is already leading to cases of election fatigue, political frustration or even irritable bowel syndrome. But perhaps better than polls, statistics or late-night shows, a short video from Wisconsin conveys how the country is feeling: YouTuber Lassie Farm has called it "So sick of political ads".

It's 95 seconds long, has 70 views so far and carries the hashtags #rant and #politicalads. The end of the film holds up election pamphlets: "Do the people who spend thousands or millions or whatever to get these ... Who look at these things and are like, yeah ... Right ... Oh no, immigrants."

The man turns the camera. A chick trots up. "I'm afraid of immigrants," says the farmer, but then he takes the chick into the car and explains that they're not. "Get in, brother," says the American. He drives slowly back from the letterbox to the house. Two dogs are frolicking by the side of the road.

"[The migrants] are not high on my list of concerns," the man now says, waving his cell phone towards a pole on which a security camera is perched. Following it, he says, "In Wisconsin, we kind of ..." he pops a revolver on the dashboard, "... take care of our own problems."

Then three geese slow down his driving. "Come on, guys." The man honks his horn. "Can't you guys get out of the way? [Mack, what am I supposed to do with these birds?"

If you want something a little more concrete, Alan Lichtman is the man for you: The historian at American University in Washington D.C. has correctly predicted nine of the last ten election outcomes. The 77-year-old has identified 13 key factors for winning the White House, against which he measures the candidates.

Lichtman made his predictions explicitly before the TV duel between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, emphasizing that the debate would not have a major impact on the outcome of the election anyway. At the beginning of September, he predicted that the Democrat would beat the Republican.

This has earned him criticism, notes the presenter of local station Fox 5 DC: is he sticking to his opinion? "Absolutely", says the professor: when he predicted Trump's election victory in 2016, there was more headwind. "That didn't make me popular in Washington, where 90 percent vote Democratic."

What is new, however, is the hatred he has received for his statement. "My family's safety has been compromised." There was nothing like this before the "toxic politics of Donald Trump". He is sticking to his statement that Harris will win, as he did in 2016, when the polls did not predict Trump's victory either.

Even with Obama in 2012, losing the TV debate would not have influenced him. In fact, six key factors would have to be in favor of the Republicans to change his forecast. However, there are only four areas that he can attribute to them.

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Nate Silver was once probably the best-known statistician in the USA: the 46-year-old is the founder of the FiveThirtyEight polling portal and achieved the feat of correctly predicting 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election.

The current consultant writes in the "New York Times" about the upcoming vote: As the candidates in the seven swing states are so close to each other, only 50:50 is a reasonable prediction. However, Silver reveals what his gut is telling him.

First of all, the 46-year-old points out with regard to polls that there are hardly any "shy Republicans" today who are afraid to state that they will vote for Trump. "A lot of people are proud of their support for Trump, and if anything, it's less stigmatizing now than ever before."

However, statisticians sometimes do not reach many Trump voters because they are less socially engaged and also respond less frequently to surveys. The passionate poker player denies that Kamala Harris' skin color could play a role: that wasn't the case with Obama either.

However, it could be that voters claim to be undecided even though they have a problem with voting for a woman: "Perhaps Miss Harris should be worried about a Hillary Clinton effect." However, it is also possible that the polls are underestimating Harris' numbers.

According to Silver's calculations, there is a 60 percent chance that a candidate will win six of the seven swing states. And at the same time, there could also be a very long election count due to a close outcome. Silver's gut tells him Trump will win. His essay is entitled: "This is what my gut says about the election, but don't trust anyone's gut - not even mine."