Politics SPD prevails against AfD in eastern German state of Brandenburg

Brandenburg's Minister President Dietmar Woidke has done it again: in the state elections in the eastern German federal state, his Social Democrats (SPD) have narrowly held their own against the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and have once again become the strongest force.

According to projections by ARD and ZDF, they were followed by the new left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the Christian Democrats (CDU). The Greens, Left Party, FDP (Liberals) and BVB/Freie Wähler all remain in single figures.

Woidke could thus continue to govern after eleven years in office. Since the last election in 2019, he has led a coalition with the CDU and the Greens.

According to projections, the SPD achieved 31.2 to 31.7 percent (2019: 23.5 percent). The AfD, which the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as a suspected right-wing extremist party, increased to 29.3% to 29.8% (23.5%).

This is followed by the BSW, which reached 12 to 12.1 percent from a standing start, and the CDU with 11.7 to 11.8 percent (15.6). The Greens lost massively and landed at 4.7 to 5 percent (10.8). The Left Party also slips dramatically to 3.1 to 3.8 percent (10.7). BVB/Freie Wähler come in at 2.6 percent (5.0). The FDP is not shown individually.

Parties that fail to reach the five percent hurdle still have a chance via the basic mandate clause: if they win at least one direct mandate, they enter the state parliament - with the number of seats according to their second vote result.

According to projections, the SPD has 30 to 33 seats in the state parliament (2019: 25 seats), the AfD 29 to 30 (23). The BSW has 12 to 13 seats. The CDU receives 11 to 12 seats (15). According to ARD, the Greens will receive 5 seats (10); according to the ZDF figures, they will fall just short of the 5% threshold.

BVB/Freie Wähler also fall short of the critical threshold (5). The Left Party did not make it into the state parliament (10) - for the first time since 1990. However, all three parties can still hope for a direct mandate.

According to projections, voter turnout is between 73 and 74%, significantly higher than in 2019 (61.3%).

Brandenburg has been governed by the SPD since 1990

After recent poor results in the European elections and the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, the SPD can now breathe a sigh of relief - even at federal level. SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz can hope for a slight tailwind for the federal elections in a year's time. For the other two coalition parties, the Greens and the FDP, however, the Brandenburg figures are bitter.

Since reunification in 1990, the Social Democrats have consistently held the office of Minister President in Brandenburg. During the election campaign, 62-year-old Woidke had deliberately not made any major joint appearances with Chancellor Scholz - probably also due to the poor poll ratings of the Berlin coalition. Around 2.1 million people were called to vote - there are fewer eligible voters in the federal state than in Berlin.

Difficult government formation

Before the election, Woidke had announced that he only wanted to remain in government if the SPD became the strongest party - he has now achieved this. However, forming a government is likely to be complicated.

It is unclear whether the previous government partner, the Greens, will return to the state parliament - in which case a continuation of the red-black-green coalition would be possible. Woidke did not comment on his preferred partners before the election. The BSW would also be a possible partner, as would the BVB/Freie Wähler - should the latter win a direct mandate. The BSW had signaled during the election campaign that it did not want to join the government at any price.

Woidke said: "We have made up ground like never before in the history of our country." He added: "Our goal from the outset was to prevent our country from getting a big brown stamp."

CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann spoke of a "bitter defeat" following his party's losses. Woidke had put all his eggs in one basket with his threat to resign - and won. "This is what credibility looks like."

Despite its good performance, the AfD has no prospect of participating in government: No other party wants to work with it. Party leader Tino Chrupalla said that they had missed the target of "sending Woidke into retirement".

However, the eastern German elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Thuringia were successful: "We won gold once and silver twice." The rise of the AfD has also recently triggered concerns abroad about a shift to the right in Germany, for example among partners in NATO and the EU.

State parliament in Potsdam has a maximum of 110 seats

A special feature in Brandenburg, which does not exist in any other federal state, is the cap on the number of seats in the state parliament - a maximum of 110.

If the AfD wins more direct seats in this election than it is entitled to according to the proportion of second votes, experts believe that the other parties may not get enough compensatory seats due to the cap on seats in the state parliament.

Should the AfD even gain more than a third of the seats, it would have a so-called blocking minority: it would have to agree to decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority. Constitutional judges, for example, are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.

Election campaign topics migration and foreign policy

The election campaign was dominated by a heated debate on limiting irregular migration, fueled by the Islamist knife attack in Solingen, West Germany, which claimed three lives. Brandenburg's border with Poland is considered a migration hotspot throughout Germany, with many asylum seekers entering the country despite stationary police checks.

Despite comparatively strong economic growth, low unemployment and the Tesla settlement, for example, there has recently been a lot of dissatisfaction among voters in Brandenburg, according to surveys.

There was particular discontent about the Ukraine policy of the federal government supported by the SPD, Greens and FDP traffic light parties, which played into the BSW's hands.

Among other things, the Wagenknecht party rejects economic sanctions against Russia and arms deliveries to Ukraine and also opposes the German government's plans to station large-scale US weapons in Germany.

SDA