Politics Presidential election in Tunisia: Saied's victory seems certain

"Alarming and frightening" - this is how human rights activists in Tunisia describe the current course under head of state Kais Saied. Nevertheless, the 66-year-old is likely to have been confirmed in office for another five years in the presidential election. The opposition, human rights activists and independent observers had serious doubts that the election would be conducted according to fair and free principles. Many considered Saied's victory to be a certainty.

More than nine million Tunisians were called to cast their votes in the Mediterranean country. Preliminary results are expected by Wednesday.

The small country was actually the only one to make a transition to democracy after the mass protests in the Arab world in 2011. Observers have since classified the two presidential elections as democratic.

Since 2021, however, Saied, who won the 2019 election, has pushed ahead with an expansion of power that critics describe as a systematic erosion of the rule of law. Saied, on the other hand, declares that his steps are within the framework of applicable law.

Real rivals excluded, role of the military strengthened

The 66-year-old constitutional lawyer Saied is running against only two candidates this time, one of whom is in prison. Serious rivals were excluded in the run-up to the election. Opposition politicians were arrested, as were activists, journalists and lawyers. The role of the military within the government has been strengthened, and there are fears of a gradual shift towards military rule.

"We must turn over a new leaf and not repeat the mistakes that happened with President Kais Saied," a voter told the German Press Agency in Tunis. A vendor of prickly pears, which are popular at this time of year, said he would boycott the election. "The promises made by the candidates and politicians are simply nonsense. They did and do nothing for the unemployed. So why should I be motivated to vote?"

Some see a return to pre-2011 times

At 16 percent, Tunisia has one of the highest unemployment rates in the region, and the figure is as high as 37 percent for young people. The poor economic situation and accusations of corruption in the government have caused many to lose confidence in politics. Some are also talking about a return to the days of long-term ruler Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, who was brought down by the mass protests of 2011. Said's supporters, on the other hand, are critical of the democratic change and the weak performance of state institutions since 2011.

The ongoing erosion of the rule of law and democratic principles in the country is "alarming and frightening", said Bassem Trifi, President of the Tunisian human rights organization LTDH. The new wave of repression began with numerous arrests in February. Since then, observers have counted dozens of violations of democratic principles, for example through "judicial harassment".

Rhetoric against migrants intensified - criticism of EU agreement

Under Saied, the rhetoric towards migrants from sub-Saharan countries has also become much harsher. As part of a migration agreement, the EU has promised Tunisia more than 100 million euros to strengthen border protection in order to stem migration towards Europe. According to reports, Tunisia's government has in some cases systematically abandoned migrants in the open desert. The EU sees itself accused of strengthening an aspiring autocrat in the agreement.

More than 60 refugee and human rights organizations demanded that Tunisian authorities that commit serious violations in border protection should not receive any financial support. The authorities were violently attacking migrants at sea, firing tear gas at close range and endangering the lives of migrants with collisions and rapid maneuvers. According to the organizations, including Human Rights Watch, migrants were also tortured and otherwise ill-treated in detention.

SDA