Iran Middle East diplomacy braces itself against expansion of the war

Ten days after the killing of two high-ranking enemies of Israel in Tehran and Beirut, it is still unclear whether and when Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah will carry out the threatened massive retaliatory strikes against Israel.

While the population in Israel goes about its daily business visibly unimpressed, the country's armed forces have been on high alert for days. The USA, Israel's most important ally, has brought additional warships and fighter planes to the region.

At the same time, according to media reports, enormous efforts are being made behind the scenes to defuse the explosive situation through diplomatic efforts. The focus is on the indirect talks between Israel and the radical Islamic Palestinian Hamas, which have been stuck for months, in order to bring an end to the ten-month-long war in Gaza and to secure the release of more than 100 hostages held by Hamas. The USA, Egypt and Qatar are mediating.

Before the "now or never moment"?

A round of talks planned for next Thursday in Cairo or Doha could be decisive. It will apparently be preceded by intensive negotiations led by emissaries of the mediating states on individual aspects of the envisaged agreement, such as the question of the future security of the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.

"The results of the coming week," wrote Israeli journalist Barak Ravid on the axios.com portal, "will show whether the region (...) will sink into an ever-expanding, perpetual war or whether there will be a significant change of course for the first time since October 7 (the beginning of the Gaza war)." Israeli officials described Thursday's round to Ravid as a "now-or-never moment".

Hamas in the Gaza Strip is supported by Iran. The pro-Iranian Shia militia Hezbollah has been firing rockets and drones at northern Israel since the beginning of the Gaza war - in solidarity with Hamas, as it claims. Substantial steps towards a settlement of the Gaza war are given additional weight by the fact that Iran and Hezbollah have repeatedly emphasized in the past that they want to reduce hostilities against Israel as soon as Israel ends the war in Gaza.

The danger of a conflagration in the region has been looming since two leading figures from Hamas and Hezbollah were killed in attacks ten days ago. The foreign head of Hamas, Ismail Hanija, died in an explosion in his room in an Iranian government guest house in Tehran. Fuad Shukr, a kind of military chief of Hezbollah, had been killed a few hours earlier by an air strike in Beirut. Israel claimed responsibility for his targeted killing. It did not comment on the assassination attempt on Hanija. However, Tehran and Hamas consider Israel to be responsible. Iran and Hezbollah have threatened massive retaliation for both killings.

Playing with fire

Israel and its allies assume that they can largely intercept a large number of rockets, cruise missiles and drones with modern defense systems. However, if many people are killed, Israel could respond with massive retaliation. This in turn could trigger an uncontrollable escalation and a major Middle East war, even if neither side intends this.

The biggest obstacle in the Gaza negotiations has recently been the intransigent attitude of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. By constantly making new demands, he has recently blocked steps towards an agreement, thereby offending even the USA and the top echelons of his own security apparatus. The latter are taking part in the talks on the basis of Netanyahu's instructions for Israel. The prime minister is governing in a coalition with far-right and ultra-religious parties. These parties are threatening to collapse the government if Netanyahu makes concessions to Hamas.

Protests against "armchair stickler" Netanyahu

Meanwhile, thousands of people demonstrated in Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities in favor of a Gaza agreement that would lead to the release of 115 hostages held by the Islamist Hamas. "This is our last chance to reach a deal that will save lives," said the mother of a kidnapped hostage at the rally in Tel Aviv. "Netanyahu continues to risk the lives of the hostages in order to keep his throne," she was quoted as saying by the Haaretz newspaper. According to media reports, there were further protests in Jerusalem, Haifa, Beersheba and in Caesarea in front of Netanyahu's private villa.

Islamist Hamas and other groups from the Gaza Strip attacked southern Israel on October 7 last year, killing more than 1,200 people and taking a further 250 hostage. The unprecedented massacre triggered the Gaza war, in the course of which Israel is seeking to crush Hamas and other militant groups in the Gaza Strip.

During a brief ceasefire, more than 100 hostages were released, most of them women and elderly people. Some of those released reported inhumane conditions while being held hostage, deprivation, violence and psychological terror. According to an Israeli count, Hamas still holds 115 hostages, 41 of whom Israel has declared dead. In addition, many more hostages, whose fate is unknown, are probably no longer alive.

Dozens dead after attack on refugee shelter

Dozens of people were killed in a devastating Israeli airstrike on a school building in the city of Gaza on Saturday, according to Palestinian reports. A spokesman for the Hamas-controlled Palestinian Civil Defense said at least 93 people were killed in the building, which was used as refugee accommodation. The Israeli military confirmed the attack, which targeted a Hamas command center located in the attacked building. At least 19 Hamas and Islamic Jihad commanders and fighters were killed in the attack.

According to eyewitnesses, the attack took place in the early hours of the morning when many were performing their morning prayers. The prayer room of the Al-Tabain school was again used by the militants and was therefore attacked, the Israeli army explained. The air force had used small-caliber missiles, which is why the number of victims could not have been that high. Neither side's claims could be independently confirmed.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell expressed his horror at the attack. "At least ten schools have been targeted in recent weeks. There is no justification for these massacres," he wrote on the X platform. The US government expressed "deep concern" about the reports of civilian casualties. "We are in contact with our Israeli interlocutors who have said they have targeted senior Hamas officials, and we are requesting further details," a National Security Council spokesman said.

SDA