"Foolish nonsense" Historian correctly predicted 9 out of 10 elections - and warns against dropping Biden

Historian Allan Lichtman has a system with which he has correctly predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections. He warns the Democrats against a change of leadership - and he's not alone.

Allan Lichtman has a knack when it comes to predicting the next US president: the historian from American University in Washington D.C. has been right nine times in the last ten ballots. Only in 2000, when George W. Bush won against Al Gore, was the 77-year-old wrong.

Lichtman has not yet made a prediction for this year, but the academic is certain that the Democrats should not panic after the TV duel between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. "Debates predict nothing about the outcome," the scholar tells CNN.

Want some examples? "Hillary Clinton won all three debates [in 2016] - and still lost," says Lichtman. "John Kerry won all the debates [in 2004] and still lost. Barack Obama got smacked on the nose - 72 percent to 20 percent in the polls. Worse than Biden - and he won."

His method therefore comprises 13 criteria: These "keys" captured the "structure by which elections really go." And contrary to everything you hear right now, the Democrats' only chance of retaining the White House is if they back Biden.

"This is foolish nonsense"

What are the 13 factors that Lichtman takes into account? Four of them relate to policy, seven to performance and two to character. "Look at the key office bonus. That goes to Biden. The key fight - that goes to Biden. It was contested."

These points would go to the other side if the incumbent is no longer allowed to run. CNN presenter Abby Phillip then points out that many Democrats fear that the 81-year-old is probably too old for the job - and this aspect does not appear in Lichtman's matrix.

"That's a big mistake," Lichtman dismisses this idea. "They are not doctors. They don't know whether Biden is physically able to run for a second term or not." The situation was similar with Ronald Reagan when he was re-elected in 1983 at the age of 73. "He won 49 [of 50] states. So that's foolish nonsense."

"The dumbest sh**** I've ever heard"

Political analysts are now giving the Democrats "terrible advice" again, as they did in 2016. "This proves what I've been saying for years is true: Republicans have no principles, Democrats have no backbone."

Lichtman goes on to rant, "Republicans are sticking by a blatant liar who lied every 80 seconds in this debate. And by the way, the lies stick. Debate performances [on the other hand] can be overcome."

Biden is also receiving support from fellow party members such as John Fetterman, the progressive Democratic senator from Pennsylvania. "This whole Biden-sawing-off thing - that's the dumbest sh**** I've ever heard," Fetterman rants in an interview with Fox News. "If you're willing to let Joe Biden down, you're helping Trump."

"It's always bad to bet against Joe Biden"

Fetterman is reminded of his own fate when he campaigned against Republican Mehmet Oz in 2022 - and was struck down by a stroke. "We had a difficult debate, but we still managed to win. One debate does not a career make." On X, he advised party supporters to "Chill the f*** out."

"It's always bad to bet against Joe Biden," says Democrat Chris Coons. "I was with him when he announced his candidacy in Philadelphia in 2019, and most of my colleagues said: 'Oh, he's too moderate, he's too white, he's too moderate'. And I was with him in New Hampshire when people didn't vote for him in the primary - and I was with him when he took the oath of office as president."

The senator in Biden's home state of Delaware believes the incumbent: "There couldn't be more at stake in this race, and the only Democrat who has ever beaten Donald Trump is Joe Biden," Coons tells ABC. "He's our candidate in November, and he has the best chance of beating him."