With or without Joe Biden? These options remain for the US Democrats
After Joe Biden's memorably weak performance in the TV debate, many are wondering whether the Democrats can win the election with him. However, a new candidacy would also be risky.
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- After the TV debate, many believe President Biden is incapable of winning re-election against Donald Trump.
- According to experts, it may be possible to replace him this late.
- Names of possible new candidates are circulating.
- But even with a new candidate, the Democratic Party would be on the defensive.
One seems to have made up his mind: Joe Biden remains convinced that he is the right Democratic candidate for the November elections. "I wouldn't run again if I didn't believe with all my heart and soul that I can do this job".
Various prominent members of the Democratic Party are rushing to Biden's aid, above all former President Barack Obama: "Bad debates happen. Believe me, I know," he wrote on X. He then reminded the audience that it was about what the two candidates stood for - Biden was fighting for ordinary people, Trump only for himself, Biden could tell right from wrong, Trump was shamelessly lying for his own benefit, Obama said.
Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, also assured the President of his support. This is despite the fact that he himself is said to have ambitions for the presidency. However, most observers did not see him as a serious contender until 2028. At least until the TV debate.
Legally tricky, but possible
The Democratic Party will nominate its candidate for the presidential election on November 5 at the Democratic National Convention from August 19 to 22. In the opinion of many observers, it could well put another person on the ticket.
The easiest way to do this would be for President Biden himself to throw in the towel. This is because the party delegates voted overwhelmingly for him as the candidate in the primaries in their states and guaranteed him their support, as the BBC reminds us.
The party convention rules are determined by the parties themselves. The Democrats' constitution states: "Delegates elected to the convention and pledged to a presidential candidate shall, to the best of their ability, reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." The party leadership could still change the rules before the party convention begins on August 19 in Chicago. But this is unlikely as long as Biden sticks to his candidacy.
A conservative group has also announced that it will file lawsuits across the country if the Democratic candidate withdraws so close to the election. However, Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution in Washington, who specializes in nomination issues and is also a member of the Democratic Party leadership's rules committee, said the courts have always stayed out of political primaries. "It's very clear constitutionally that this is within the purview of the party"
Who could replace Biden?
Behind the scenes, however, the Democrats are said to be looking for a Plan B, an alternative to Joe Biden. The Reuters agency quotes an anonymous Democratic donor who is calling for another candidate to be put forward. The New York Times, which has devoted a lot of space to Donald Trump's failures for years, writes on behalf of the editorial board: "To serve his country, Joe Biden should drop out of the election".
Various experts also point out that this will be difficult against the will of the incumbent. But even a new force would not automatically put the Democrats on the road to victory. After all, Trump's campaign for his re-election basically began with his refusal to recognize the result of the last election - four years ago. A new Democratic candidate, on the other hand, would not have three months to win over the US electorate.
Nevertheless, some names are circulating. In addition to Gavin Newsom, these include Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, the wealthy Hyatt heir J. B. Pritzker, Governor of Illinois, Josh Shapiro, his counterpart in Pennsylvania, and Andy Beshear, who governs Kentucky.
Whiter and Shapiro govern one of the battleground states that are seen as particularly contested between the two parties in the 2024 election. Newsom and Pritzker, on the other hand, come from states that are considered safely Democratic anyway and will not bring the "blues" any much-needed additional votes. Andy Beshear defeated the incumbent in a "red", i.e. Republican, state. However, this would only give the Democrats 8 votes. Michigan with 15 and Pennsylvania with 19 are more important to bring together the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidency.
The role of Jill Biden
And what about running mate Kamala Harris? She would actually be the logical successor as the Democratic candidate. However, in her four years at President Biden's side, she has not managed to win over a large enough section of the public. Former First Lady Michelle Obama is considered to have a better chance. However, she has no intention of running.
So far, Joe Biden has made no move to announce his candidacy as the Democratic candidate. He would first have to be persuaded. "Who will tell him?" asks the Tages-Anzeiger rhetorically. At least for the influential New York Times, the answer is clear: First Lady Jill Biden. For now, however, she has also backed her husband.
With material from DPA