President Biden in trouble Could a female candidate beat Trump? The answer is clear

Philipp Dahm

5.7.2024

He "messed up" the TV duel, admits Joe Biden - and is reportedly thinking about resigning despite denials. The Democrats are seething, but in the polls only one party figure can clearly hold a candle to Trump.

No time? blue News summarizes for you

  • Joe Biden admits after the TV duel: "I screwed up."
  • A third of Democrat voters want Biden to give up.
  • However, alternative candidates cannot prevail in the polls. Only one party figure beats Trump by 11 points.
  • "Choreographing the exit": this is what the "contours of a rescue operation" by the Democrats could look like.
  • There are still reports that Biden is considering withdrawing or that Democrats want to dump him.
  • Donald Trump calls Joe Biden a "broken pile of sh*****" and expects Kamala Harris to replace him.

On the surface, they are keeping their ranks closed, but beneath the surface, the Democratic Party has been seething since the first TV duel: "I had a bad night. I blew it," Joe Biden admits on the "Earl Ingram Show" and pleads: "That was 90 minutes on stage. Look at what I've accomplished in three and a half years."

Earl Ingram, who interviewed the president, spoke to CNN about his impression of the 81-year-old: "He certainly didn't come across as someone who appeared to be throwing in the towel," the radio producer explained. "He was as combative as ever."

His democratically inclined audience had a lively discussion about the topic, says Ingram: But the majority don't want to change horses this far into the race, he says.

"Every American knows what a confused person looks like"

This does not apply to some Democratic members of parliament: "The poll ratings of members of the House of Representatives are collapsing," says one of them to Jake Tapper. "We're all doing better than the president, but it's not sustainable."

"I blew it": Joe Biden's performance in the TV duel on June 27 in Atlanta, Georgia, lingers.
"I blew it": Joe Biden's performance in the TV duel on June 27 in Atlanta, Georgia, lingers.
Image: Keystone

"Every American knows what a confused older person looks like," complains another Democratic congressman. "That was a massive signal that he's not capable of lifting a second term. It's not going to get any better. The likelihood of this [Biden's missteps] happening more often is increasing, not decreasing."

The crux of the matter is the question of whether Biden can beat Donald Trump in the election on November 5. After the TV duel, the incumbent is "probably the only person in the Democratic Party who could lose to a waffling demagogue convicted of rape, libel and falsifying financial records," writes James Davies in the Frankfurter Rundschau.

Only one party great beats Trump - and that clearly

For the University of St. Gallen political scientist, [Biden] "simply raised too many doubts [] as to whether he was still up to the job". In a new poll, Trump and he are tied at 40 percent, according to Reuters. At the same time, 32% of Democratic voters are in favor of the president resigning after the TV duel.

Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom in San Leandro, California. (archive picture)
Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom in San Leandro, California. (archive picture)
Image: Keystone

The problem: There is almost no Democrat bigwig who can compete with Trump in this poll. Kamala Harris loses to him by the narrowest of margins, 42 percent to 43 percent. California Governor Gavin Newsom comes in at 39 percent, while Trump lands at 43 percent.

Only one head comes out on top against the Republican - and that with flying colors: If Michelle Obama were to run, the wife of former President Barack Obama would receive 50 percent approval and Trump only 39 percent. However, her husband explicitly backed Biden after the TV debate and supported him.

"Choreographing his departure"

Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne believes it is "not very realistic" that Biden will be replaced. "American politicians are like entrepreneurs," the political scientist explains to SRF. "They have a whole company, their own team behind them. You can't just change their heads, because loyalties play an important role."

"Loyalties play an important role": Former President Barack Obama kisses wife Michelle at the presentation of her portraits for the White House on September 7, 2022 in Washington.
"Loyalties play an important role": Former President Barack Obama kisses wife Michelle at the presentation of her portraits for the White House on September 7, 2022 in Washington.
Image: Keystone

Jäger, like others, emphasizes that the TV duel does not actually have the influence that is attributed to it. But: "Because the race will be very close in some states, the TV appearance could still be decisive." Nevertheless, there is no alternative to Biden for the Democratic Party.

His colleague Davies sees things differently: the American-born politician describes the "contours of a rescue operation", in which a group consisting of party greats such as Nancy Pelosi and the political leadership of the Democrats make it clear to Biden that it is not about him personally, but about the good of the country. "They need to give the president the time and space he needs to choreograph his exit."

Trump calls Biden a "broken pile of sh*****"

On paper, the Democrats still have time: they will not officially crown their candidate until a party convention that runs from August 19 to 22 - even if the nomination is to be brought forward to August 7 in order to comply with laws in Ohio.

The broadcaster NBC reports that, contrary to all denials, Biden is actually considering withdrawing. CNN commentator Van Jones also says that the Democrats are not discussing behind closed doors whether their top candidate can be replaced, but how.

The issue is also causing a stir on the right. For example, among the Never Trump Republicans, who do not want the New Yorker to return to power: they are annoyed that the incumbent is losing ground. The 78-year-old himself can hardly hide his delight at the situation.

"Broke bunch of sh*****": Donald Trump now expects to run against Kamala Harris. (archive picture)
"Broke bunch of sh*****": Donald Trump now expects to run against Kamala Harris. (archive picture)
Image: Keystone

The proof is a video that was leaked to "Daily Beast": in it, Trump brags in a golf cart that he showed it to the "broken pile of sh*****" during the TV duel: "He just throws down, you know, he quits the race. I kicked him out, and that means we have Kamala. I think she'll do better. She's so bad. She's so pathetic."