Switzerland is dreaming big at the European Championships. But what are the real chances of winning the European Championship title? blue Sport asked a mathematician.
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- Switzerland will face Italy in the round of 16 of the European Championships. It is quite likely that the Nati will beat the Squadra Azzurra, as projections by mathematician Jonas Bächinger show.
- The top favorites for the European Championship title are Spain, followed by England. Switzerland is in tenth place.
- Before the round of 16, 64 different final pairings are still possible. The most likely duel is between Spain and England.
Switzerland are dreaming big at the European Championship. Granit Xhaka has - as always - made it to the final, and Ricardo Rodriguez is also aiming for the final at the tournament in Germany.
The group stage is over, now it's time for the knockout phase. "The chances of the national team reaching the quarter-finals are 41%," says Jonas Bächinger. The mathematician has taken a close look at the round of 16 pairings for blue Sport.
The national team in the top ten in the European Championship ranking
Switzerland is in the weaker half of the tableau. "However, it's a double-edged sword," says Bächinger. A tough nut to crack awaits Switzerland in the round of 16 with Italy, and in the quarter-finals the national team would face England, "the strongest remaining team in this half".
As things stand, the chances of the national team qualifying for the semi-finals are 17%. However, this would change after reaching the quarter-finals. According to Bächinger's projections: Eight percent of the national team will reach the final, while the chances of winning the European Championship title amount to three percent. In other words: "Switzerland is the tenth most likely European champion."
Spain the favorites, England and the Netherlands the winners
But according to the mathematics, who is the crown favorite to win the European Championship title? "All in all, it's very, very close," says Bächinger. Spain have the best odds (15 percent), followed by England (14 percent), France (12 percent), the Netherlands (11 percent) and Germany (10 percent).
Before the round of 16, 64 different final pairings are still possible. The most likely duel is between Spain and England (7 percent). The chances of Spain playing the Netherlands are six percent.
According to Bächinger, the Netherlands and England are among the winners. "The teams that played a rather weak group stage" are now in the weaker half of the table.
Even a small piece of cake can be hard to get your teeth into
The half with fewer top-class players also includes the much-mentioned secret favorites Austria. Ralf Rangnick's team is 26 percent likely to qualify for the semi-finals. If you imagine a round cake, that would be a pretty big slice at over a quarter.
Even if Switzerland mathematically make up a small slice of the possible final participants, every opponent can bite their teeth out of even a small slice. And with every round they survive, their chances increase - and suddenly Granit Xhaka's full suitcase has more than paid off and Ricardo Rodriguez has achieved his goal.
