Election barometer 2024 SVP is stronger than ever in the polls, center-left slumps

If elections had been held around a year after the federal elections, the SVP would have achieved a record result. A recent survey also shows that support for the center-left is waning.

The SVP emerges as the clear winner in the latest election barometer from the Sotomo polling institute. The People's Party has a voter share of 29.9%. This corresponds to an increase of two percentage points compared to the result of the 2023 elections - and would surpass the record result of 29.4% from 2015.

According to the latest Sotomo survey, the SVP is the only party to increase its popularity among voters. All other parties would maintain their share of the vote or suffer slight losses.

According to the survey, the SP would have become the second strongest party with 17.8% of the vote. The Social Democrats would have lost 0.5 percentage points. The FDP and the Center Party would have been able to maintain their results of 14.3% and 14.1% respectively. In contrast, the Greens would have suffered losses with 9.5 percent (-0.5) and the Green Liberals with 6.6 percent (-1).

Election researchers see a shift to the right

Although no party would lose significantly, the authors of the study note that the center-left spectrum is receiving less support overall. Nevertheless, they speak of a shift to the right. This corresponds to a European trend.

It is striking that the FDP, although it has taken a strong stance in the past year, has not yet been able to benefit. On the contrary, the Free Democrats are still in a neck-and-neck race with the center for third place in the ranking.

According to the survey, the left cannot benefit from its successes in substantive votes in terms of voter share. Examples of this are the votes on the 13th AHV pension, the highway expansion and the tenancy law proposals. The authors of the study explain this with the peculiarities of semi-direct democracy.

They write that Swiss voting democracy also allows voters to counteract the trend towards the right only selectively.

"Right-wing" and "left-wing" issues equally important

According to the study, the result of the survey can be partly explained by the current state of the issues. From the respondents' point of view, health insurance premiums remain the biggest challenge for Swiss politics.

50 percent of them ranked the premium burden among the three most important challenges. 33% named immigration in general and the free movement of persons, while 29% named asylum policy. These were followed by climate change and social security/cost of living, with 26% and 24% respectively.

According to the study, the top ranks include both classic issues of the conservative camp and those that are important to the left.

Rösti is the most influential Federal Councillor

The survey also asked respondents about their satisfaction with the direction of the national government. 39% rate the Federal Council as rather too right-wing, 32% as rather too left-wing. For 29%, the direction of the Federal Council is just right.

64% of respondents said that they considered Rösti to be one of the most influential members of the Federal Council. This puts the SVP politician in the top spot.

In the last survey of this kind in 2023, Rösti was still in third place; at that time, respondents considered Alain Berset (SP), who has since resigned, to be the most influential Federal Councillor.

As in the previous year, Karin Keller-Sutter follows in second place. 60 percent consider the Liberal Democrat to be influential. In contrast, the two SP members of the Federal Council, Beat Jans and Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, landed at the bottom of the rankings with scores of 8% and 6% respectively.

According to the authors of the study, the SP has lost influence as a result of Berset's resignation from the Federal Council, while the SVP has gained influence thanks to Rösti.

Notes on the methodology

The information from 4467 eligible voters was evaluated for the survey. They were able to take part in the online survey between October 28 and November 11.

Although they were able to recruit themselves for the survey, the data was then weighted so that it is representative of the active voting population according to Sotomo. With this method, it is not possible to calculate a sampling error as with a random sample. However, the survey is similarly representative to a random sample with a sampling error of +/-1.5 percentage points, according to the research center.