Political scientist explains Are the conservatives threatened with further referendum failures?
Together they achieve a majority of the Swiss electorate. Despite this, the SVP, FDP and centrists repeatedly fall on important issues. Political scientist Oliver Strijbis analyzes the situation of the conservatives.
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- The left-wing camp recently scored a major victory at the ballot box by voting no to the planned highway expansion.
- This means that the centre-right has once again failed to push through an important bill.
- Political scientist Oliver Strijbis sees the reasons for this as a lack of pressure to compromise and dwindling trust in the conservative government.
In the 2023 elections, the SVP, FDP and Center Party together achieved a voter share of 56.24%. Despite this, the third major defeat for the conservative parties this year came in the form of the blocked freeway expansion, the crashed occupational pension reform and the 13th AHV pension. And this despite the three parties achieving a majority of voters.
Mr. Strijbis, why are the SVP, FDP and centrist parties unable to get their projects through?
About the person
Oliver Strijbis is Professor of Political Science at Franklin University Switzerland in Lugano and founder of Feldlabor GmbH. He specializes in voting, elections, migration and nationalism.
The constellations of the various votes and proposals are different, so there is no single reason. But I think there are two aspects that can explain the trend. Firstly, the conservative parties are not forced to make broad compromises due to their majority in parliament and the Federal Council. Accordingly, they try to push through clearly conservative proposals, which is riskier than if the proposals correspond to a broader compromise.
Secondly, trust in the Federal Council has declined in recent years. This may be partly due to the fact that we have a very bourgeois Federal Council with four federal councillors who are clearly to the right of the center. However, it may also reflect the declining trust in governments that is also evident internationally.
Is the left currently in control of the campaign?
I don't think so. Due to the majority ratios in the Federal Council and parliament, the left is simply more likely to be forced to force votes. But I think that referendums and initiatives from the right also have a good chance in the current environment.
How united do you currently perceive cooperation in the conservative camp?
The SVP and FDP are certainly more united than ever before. This is mainly due to the fact that the FDP, under the presidency of Thierry Burkhart, is clearly moving to the right. Instead of relying on its economic expertise, the FDP is increasingly trying to distinguish itself with a conservative course.
What role does the SVP's immigration initiative (No Switzerland of 10 million) and the associated potential rupture in relations with the EU play?
I don't think they were of any great significance for the results of the votes. Not even with regard to the expansion of the freeways. With the immigration initiative, the SVP is driving the FDP and the center in front of it. The FDP and centrists can only lose on this issue, as they will always position themselves as either too EU-critical or too EU-friendly for some of their voters.
Behind closed doors, Gerhard Pfister is rumored to be aiming to succeed Viola Amherd one day. Is the centrist president therefore anxious not to alienate the red-green camp?
I don't think so. If his personal ambitions for the Federal Council were particularly important to him, he would probably not have become party president. After all, as party president you typically have to raise your profile too much for this to be helpful for a Federal Council candidacy.
Can we expect to see further bourgeois voting failures unless the bourgeois alliance is strengthened?
The left has a good chance in social and environmental policy, especially in referendums. Especially if the conservative parties show themselves to be unwilling to compromise on these issues, there is a real threat of further referendum defeats.