Chaos at the federal government AHV calculation error amounts to as much as ten billion in 2040

Helene Laube

12.9.2024

The federal government's AHV calculator caused a stir in the summer. A new figure has now raised eyebrows: In 2040, expenditure is expected to be a good ten billion lower than previously assumed.

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  • The Federal Social Insurance Office announced in August that AHV expenditure is implausibly high in the long term - it is likely to be significantly lower in 2033 than previously calculated.
  • The newspaper "Blick" now reports that the federal government has miscalculated the AHV even more than was previously known.
  • According to Deputy Director Bruno Parnisari in the Council of States Social Affairs Committee, the old calculation of the AHV up to 2040 is even around ten billion francs off.

In August, it became known that the Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO) would have to significantly correct its calculations of the financial prospects for old-age and survivors' insurance (OASI). According to the report, AHV expenditure in 2033 is likely to be around four billion francs or around six percent lower than previously assumed.

Blick now reports that the federal government has miscalculated the AHV even more than was previously known. So far, the FSIO has limited its corrections to the period up to 2033, but it was not previously known how much further the gap would widen in the years after that. However, the difference is said to be significant, writes the newspaper.

According to Deputy Director Bruno Parnisari in the Council of States Social Affairs Committee, the old AHV calculation up to 2040 is even ten billion francs off. Due to the long time horizon, however, it is not possible to give an exact figure. The deviation could also be nine or eleven billion, Parnisari told the members of the Council of States.

Administrative investigation initiated

The Federal Social Insurance Office did not wish to comment on this figure when asked, according to "Blick".

Federal Councillor and Social Affairs Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider has to explain a calculation error at the FSIO that is difficult to explain. (archive picture)
Federal Councillor and Social Affairs Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider has to explain a calculation error at the FSIO that is difficult to explain. (archive picture)
Picture: Keystone/Peter Klaunzer

Social Affairs Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider launched an administrative investigation after the first calculation error became known in August.