Billion-euro error causes unrest in Bern AHV glitch relieves the federal government, but could be expensive
The AHV is doing better than previously assumed: The federal government has massively miscalculated its expenditure. The error is causing red flags among political parties and associations and undermining confidence in politics.
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- The Federal Social Insurance Office has determined that AHV expenditure is implausibly high in the long term: They are likely to be significantly lower in 2033 than previously calculated. The fiasco has consequences.
- In the referendum campaign on raising the retirement age for women in September 2022 and on the 13th AHV pension in March 2024, the financial situation of the AHV was an important argument for both opponents and supporters: the miscalculation undermines the people's trust in politics.
- Social Affairs Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider has described the AHV calculation error at the Federal Social Insurance Office as significant and serious.
The Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO) must significantly correct its calculations of the AHV's financial prospects. Expenditure on old-age and survivors' insurance is likely to be around CHF 4 billion or around 6 percent lower in 2033 than previously assumed. This means that, according to FSIO Director Stéphane Rossini, the AHV will be better off than previously assumed.
The FSIO now assumes a positive contribution result for 2024 and 2025. From 2026, the AHV will be in the red following the introduction of the 13th AHV pension. However, the deficits will be lower than previously expected.
For the news portal srf.ch, voters' trust in politics is dwindling following the AHV calculation error by the Federal Social Insurance Office. "The Federal Social Insurance Office has miscalculated. Badly miscalculated. (...) The fact that the wrong formulas were used for five years and nobody noticed the error is serious. The decisions of the voters are based on federal forecasts. If it turns out that such forecasts are wrong, this massively undermines the confidence of the electorate in politics..."
Federal Councillor Baume-Schneider launches investigation
Social Affairs Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider described the AHV calculation error at the Federal Social Insurance Office as significant and serious. Transparency is very important to her, said Baume-Schneider on the fringes of an event in La Chaux-de-fonds NE.
That is why she has initiated an administrative investigation. The aim is to understand how the difficulties and errors in the calculations came about. The Jura native emphasized the need to restore the confidence of the Swiss in social insurance.
Left-wing parties question voting results
The AHV miscalculation has triggered a wave of indignation among political parties and trade unions. In view of the changed facts, the left-wing camp and trade unions are questioning the narrow popular vote in 2022 to increase the retirement age for women.
The Greens are even considering an appeal against the vote on raising the women's retirement age. The Swiss Federation of Trade Unions is questioning the narrow result of this vote. The SP is calling on the conservatives to "finally stop the plans to cut pensions".
Sharp criticism from the conservative camp
The conservatives were also astonished. SVP parliamentary group leader Thomas Aeschi welcomed the investigation announced by Interior Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, as he told the Keystone-SDA newsroom when asked.
Now it must be clarified who is responsible. It is problematic when false figures are communicated before important votes. However, Aeschi rejected a repeat of the vote on the women's retirement age.
The FDP sharply criticized the responsible SP Federal Councillor Baume-Schneider and the former SP Federal Councillor Alain Berset. The FSIO had caused a fiasco under their leadership. The party demanded a review of the forecasts in other areas of social insurance such as disability insurance and supplementary benefits.
Costs for the supplementary old-age pension remain the same
According to the FSIO, the cost of the 13th AHV pension will hardly change as a result of the calculation error. However, the financial requirement for the 13th AHV pension will be slightly lower from 2026. According to the new calculations, the cost of the 13th old-age pension will be around CHF 4.2 billion in 2026 and just under CHF 5 billion per year in 2030. The Federal Council will soon decide on how to proceed with the 13th old-age pension. The FSIO is preparing the corresponding dispatch and consultation process.
According to the Greens, the case shows that there is no need for special funding for the 13th AHV pension. "We must not place a one-sided burden on the low birth cohorts, i.e. the young. At the same time, we must not damage the competitiveness of our economy," Green Liberal National Councillor Melanie Mettler (BE) was quoted as saying in a press release.
Trade union federation calls for 13th AHV pension from as early as 2025
The deviations published by the federal government are almost equivalent to a 13th monthly pension, wrote the Federation of Trade Unions. It demanded that the more money available than previously thought should be credited to the insured persons. The 13th AHV pension approved by the people should be paid out as early as 2025.
The umbrella organization of employees in Switzerland, Travailsuisse, called for the financing of the 13th AHV pension and pensions to be adjusted to the new forecasts. Today it has become clear that the federal government would not only be budget-neutral by reducing the federal contribution on the basis of the adjusted forecasts, but on the contrary would make savings at the expense of the AHV.
