Politics Power struggle in France: Front against Le Pen's victory

In France, right-wing nationalists and bourgeois parties are fighting for power in the country after the first round of the parliamentary elections. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) is hoping to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly after its outstanding performance in the first round and thus come to power. President Emmanuel Macron and the left-wing camp want to try to prevent this with a joint front in the run-off elections on July 7.

As expected, the RN and its allies came out on top in the first round of the early parliamentary elections in France with 33 to 34.2 percent. According to forecasts, this could make the right-wing populists the strongest force in the lower house with 230 to 280 seats. However, they may fall just short of an absolute majority with 289 seats.

President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp came third with 20.7 to 22 percent, behind the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire with 28.1 to 29.1 percent. The left could end up with 125 to 200 seats. Macron's Liberals are in danger of dropping to just 60 to 100 seats.

Candidates withdraw for tactical reasons

How many seats the blocs will get in the National Assembly will only be decided in run-off elections next Sunday. Both the left-wing alliance and Macron's party have said that they will withdraw in the constituencies in which they came third in favor of candidates who are able to beat the Rassemblement National.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who is fearing for his job, warned: "Never before in our democracy has the National Assembly been exposed to the risk of being dominated by the extreme right as it is tonight." It was a moral duty to do everything possible to prevent the worst.

Le Pen, on the other hand, called for her party to win an absolute majority in the upcoming run-off elections. "Nothing is won, the second round is crucial." RN party leader Jordan Bardella announced his intention to take over the government as prime minister with an absolute majority in parliament.

Shift to the right would have international consequences

Should the RN actually win an absolute majority, Macron would effectively be forced to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the right-wing nationalists. This is because the lower house could topple the government. While the supporters of the RN are hoping for a change of power, a large proportion of the French fear a takeover by the right-wing nationalists. On Sunday evening, thousands of people demonstrated against the extreme right in Paris and several other cities.

In this case, Germany and Europe would have to be prepared for the divided country no longer pursuing a clear course and becoming less reliable. As president, Macron has priority in foreign policy. However, if the 28-year-old Bardella were to become prime minister, it would be difficult for him to continue his course unhindered. Instead of new initiatives, administration would be the order of the day in France.

In contrast to Macron, the RN has little interest in close cooperation with Germany. The party also wants to curb the influence of the European Union in France.

France threatened with stagnation

If, on the other hand, the current forecasts come true and neither camp wins an absolute majority, France would face tough coalition negotiations. At present, it is not clear how the fundamentally different political players can come together to form a government.

If no solution is found, the current government could remain in office as a kind of transitional government or an expert government could be appointed. In such a scenario, France would be threatened with political gridlock. A government without a majority would not be able to get new projects off the ground.

SDA