Foreign trade Prospects brighten for Swiss export industry

The outlook for the Swiss export industry brightened slightly in October. However, further development depends on external factors.

The semi-annual Allianz Trade Export Forecast stood at -0.12 points in October, an improvement of 0.35 points. The multi-year low of -1.4 points from the end of 2022 is now a distant memory, Allianz Trade announced on Thursday.

"It appears that most Swiss export companies are in a good position," commented Jan Möllmann, CEO of Allianz Trade Switzerland, on the index. The drivers of the improvement in Switzerland were air freight and the financial markets. However, Möllmann was only cautiously optimistic about the future, as developments depend heavily on the global economy and geopolitical factors.

International situation remains tense

According to the report, industrial production continues to decline in all sectors worldwide. This is weakening demand for Swiss goods.

In addition, the Swiss franc remains strong and is making exports from Switzerland more expensive. Exports to Europe in particular have lost momentum in recent months, according to the report.

Nevertheless, the experts at Allianz Trade expect the Swiss economy to recover further by the end of the year. The easing of monetary policy in Europe and the USA, which is boosting international demand for goods, is likely to be responsible for this.

However, it is unlikely to be enough for significant investments in equipment. "The momentum is only likely to develop towards the end of the year," says the insurer.

The Allianz Trade Export Index takes into account leading indicators from industry, transportation, financial and commodity markets as well as new sentiment indicators. A total of around 100 components are incorporated into the model.

SDA