The next 4 years in 9 points What Trump's victory means for Switzerland and the world

Donald Trump has prevailed: his second term in office will have consequences for Switzerland. People in the Middle East, Taiwan, Ukraine and the rest of Europe must also expect changes.

Donald Trump is now President-elect. The title is of a formal nature and does not confer any powers.

On December 17, the electors cast their votes in Washington: The result will be confirmed by Congress on January 6, 2025. Vice President Kamala Harris presides over the election.

Trump's second term begins with the official inauguration on January 20.

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If Trump makes good on his announcements, the USA will impose new import tariffs of at least 10 percent. His protectionism would hit the Swiss economy, which exported goods and services worth CHF 48.8 billion to the United States in 2023.

Trump's isolationism and his attitude towards multilateral organizations could lead to international uncertainty, which could have a further impact on the Swiss economy. The think tank Foraus adds: "Trump tends to link issues that are traditionally dealt with separately - an unconventional approach for which Switzerland is not sufficiently prepared."

Outgoing President Joe Biden now has two months to get projects off the ground that have no chance under his successor. At the beginning of September, the White House explicitly stated that the 81-year-old wanted to "protect freedoms that the President sees threatened" in his last days in the White House.

It remains to be seen what this will look like in concrete terms. What seems certain, however, is that Biden will try to do Ukraine one last service in the form of financial or military aid. It is certain that this will at least be reduced by his successor.

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Volodymyr Selensky is facing a dark year: Donald Trump has announced that he will end the war in the blink of an eye by forcing Kiev and Moscow to negotiate. If Vladimir Putin does not cooperate, Trump wants to increase military aid for his opponent. If Zelensky does not play along, the Republican wants to end his support.

The Kremlin would certainly go along with this and emphasize its territorial demands: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya should fall to Russia. Even before the election, Zelensky defiantly emphasized that no territories would be ceded. Whether he can afford to do so is another matter. Without US help, Kiev's defeat is probably only a matter of time.

Trump's victory is also a victory for Benjamin Netanyahu: in March, the 78-year-old said with regard to the Gaza war that the US should "let the Israeli prime minister do the job" and criticized Biden for his criticism of the campaign. Netanyahu should therefore now have a free hand.

"Taiwan, they stole our [chip] business," Donald Trump said about the island shortly before the election. "And they want protection." However, "The Diplomat" writes that the New Yorker is unlikely to abandon Taiwan, as China hopes.

It is possible that the island will have to pay for Trump's support, but leaving the terrain to China is not an alternative. Beijing itself must be prepared for a trade war because Trump wants to impose a 20 percent tariff on Chinese goods. If Beijing attacks Taiwan, the Republican wants to punish Beijing with tariffs of between 150 and 200 percent.

"I'll tell you what: the European Union sounds so nice, doesn't it?", Trump asks his audience shortly before the election. "All these nice little countries coming together." It follows: "They're not taking our cars. They're not taking our agricultural products. They're selling millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they will have to pay a high price."

Europe, like Switzerland, is expecting tariffs of 10 percent, but Trump's isolationism is likely to have a more serious impact. If the USA withdraws from NATO or reduces its troop strength in Europe, for example, Europe will have to ensure that Russia is deterred and invest billions in its own security.

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Trump is entering his second term in office better prepared than in 2020. As part of his "Agenda 47", a list of 54,000 loyal supporters has reportedly already been drawn up who are to be appointed to the administration on a large scale once he enters the White House.

They are also to replace employees who are not even politically active - for example at the weather service. Vaccination opponent Robert F. Kennedy is to take over the health department. Former football star Herschel Walker is to oversee the development of a missile defense system.

Trump will end ongoing criminal proceedings and court cases against him - as far as possible - and pardon himself if necessary.