Questions and answers What does the fall of Assad mean?

Events are coming thick and fast: in just under two weeks, an alliance of insurgents in Syria has taken control of the most important cities and put ruler Bashar al-Assad to flight.

Keystone-SDA

08.12.2024, 11:49

08.12.2024, 14:59

SDA

Assad's return to power seems virtually impossible after his flight from Damascus. In recent years, his weak government has only been able to hold on with the support of Russia, Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and other militias loyal to Iran. Assad is likely to go into hiding, for example in Moscow, if he survives the escape. The army, Assad's most important Syrian supporter, has also announced the end of his government. Syria has been ruled by the Assad family for decades, with Assad's father Hafez becoming the de facto autocrat in 1970.

That is unclear. The alliance of insurgents that has taken control of large areas, including the capital Damascus, is led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It previously had links to the terrorist organizations Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda. However, it later publicly renounced these organizations. Leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has been using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa for a few days now and has adopted a more diplomatic and conciliatory tone. However, HTS was previously also accused of torture and executions. The EU and the USA classify HTS as a terrorist organization.

No. HTS is the most powerful of the rebel groups that has joined forces with other groups to fight Assad. After the fall of the Assad government, however, the rivalry between these groups could become more pronounced again and lead to new battles in a power vacuum. There are also other rebel groups in the north that are supported by Turkey, Kurdish militias in the north-east and cells of the terrorist militia IS that carry out attacks. It is unclear which group or possibly a new alliance could take power and what role the soldiers and other security forces that have so far remained loyal to Assad will play.

According to critics, Assad is the fall of one of the biggest and most brutal rulers in the Middle East, who used poison gas and torture against his own people, among other things. The falling Assad monuments are reminiscent of the fall of the long-term rulers in Iraq and Libya, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Many Syrians are celebrating Assad's end, while others fear a new, different tyranny under the insurgent Islamists. '

Iran is losing an important strategic ally in Assad. Tehran financed the Assad government and helped it militarily, also in order to use Syria as a "corridor" to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. With the change of power in Syria, Iran's Middle East policy - and in particular the fight against arch-enemy Israel - has reached an impasse. Critics accuse the Iranian leadership of having wasted billions of US dollars with its miscalculation in Syria.

Some even see the fall of Assad as the major turning point for the so-called "axis of resistance" that Iran has formed against Israel. Following the killing of Hamas foreign leader Ismail Haniya and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and now Assad's escape, three leading figures of the "axis" have been eliminated within a few months. A member of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), who kept Assad's government alive for a long time, compared the events in Syria to the fall of the Berlin Wall, reports an Iran reporter for the New York Times

Israel is watching developments in its northern neighbor Syria with great vigilance. The fall of Assad is seen as a bitter setback for Israel's arch-enemy Iran. Because the important land connection between Iran and the Mediterranean has been cut, it is also unlikely that Hezbollah, against which Israel waged war until a ceasefire a week and a half ago, will be able to rearm. All of this plays into Israel's hands.

From Israel's perspective, the collapse of Assad's rule is part of a regional chain reaction that began with the terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas and other extremist groups on October 7, 2023.

Israeli analyst Udi Evental speaks of a "regional earthquake" caused by the fall of Assad. He now expects several possible "aftershocks" in the region. The Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon have already been largely defeated. The "ring of fire" with which Iranian supporters have surrounded Israel for a good decade has been practically completely destroyed by the events in Syria.

Evental now sees better chances for a ceasefire and a hostage deal in the Gaza Strip after more than a year of devastating war in the coastal strip. "Hamas has lost the support of the (Iranian) axis, remains alone and is signaling growing interest in a settlement." This offers the opportunity to "clear the air" before Donald Trump takes office as US President in January, so that they can "jointly focus on the central threat: the Iranian nuclear program".

For years, developments in Syria have no longer been initiated in Damascus, but in Moscow and Ankara as well as Tehran. Russia had kept Assad in power during the civil war with airstrikes, but reduced its troop numbers in the country due to the war in Ukraine. Moscow is nevertheless likely to try to maintain its important air and naval bases on the Mediterranean coast, not least because of their proximity to Europe and to safeguard its interests in Africa.

It is unclear to what extent Russia and Turkey, which occupies territories in northern Syria, could reach agreements with the new rulers in the country in future. Experts suspect that Turkey at least approved the offensive in order to exert pressure on Assad. The latter had previously rejected normalization with neighbouring Turkey - to the displeasure of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Among other things, Erdogan wants to return refugees to Syria due to the tensions in his own country. Erdogan has also made it clear that he will not tolerate an expansion of the presence of Kurdish militias on the border with Turkey.

For its part, the USA still has several hundred soldiers stationed in Syria to fight the terrorist militia IS. However, they were also a kind of Western wedge deep in Iran's sphere of influence. After Trump took office in Washington, who had already ordered a US troop withdrawal from Syria in 2019, the military balance of power there could change again. Trump has now made it clear that he does not want the USA to get involved in the crisis in Syria in any way because it is not their fight.

Syria has by no means been a safe country to return to in recent years. However, those who fled from Assad's troops, his allies or other armed groups during the civil war from 2011 onwards could now consider returning. More than three million Syrian refugees live in neighboring Turkey and many more in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt. More than 14 million people were displaced in the civil war, around half of them in their own country.