Have Trump's threats worked? Gaza deal is in place - what has been achieved, what's next?

Israel has been fighting in the Gaza Strip for 15 months. From Sunday, the guns are to fall silent. What has been achieved with the agreement - and how it came about.

DPA

15.01.2025, 21:50

dpa

For months, the USA, Egypt and Qatar had been trying to persuade Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement on a ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners through indirect negotiations. The breakthrough has now been achieved. Here are the most important questions and answers:

If the ceasefire that has now been agreed for six weeks also heralds a longer-term end to the war, there are still unlikely to be any kind of winners. Israel has neither achieved its war aim of completely destroying Hamas, nor will all hostages be freed as a result of this agreement.

For its part, the Islamist Hamas, which describes itself as a resistance movement against Israel, has lost its most important leaders and has also largely lost control in Gaza. The biggest losers and victims of the war are undoubtedly the hundreds of thousands of civilians affected in Gaza as well as the hostages held by Hamas and their relatives. For all of them, the agreement means hope for an end to the suffering.

But Israeli society as a whole is also divided and traumatized by the massacre by Hamas and other extremists from the Gaza Strip in Israel on 7 October 2023 and the longest war in the history of the state. And the hope of many Israelis that the Palestinians and their demands for their own state could simply be ignored has proven to be deceptive.

In addition, Israel's reputation has suffered greatly in many parts of the world. As it is questionable whether agreement will be reached on the release of the remaining hostages in the second phase of the agreement, there are also accusations that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has abandoned the remaining hostages with the current agreement.

The agreement is on very shaky ground - if only because Israel's government and Hamas have sworn to destroy each other. In view of the deep mistrust, it remains to be seen whether both sides will stick to the agreed steps for weeks and whether certain passages will be interpreted differently. On the other hand, there is a great longing in both populations for the weapons to fall silent after 15 months of war - war-weariness could therefore have a stabilizing effect.

Israel and Hamas are far apart on the question of who should govern the extensively destroyed Gaza Strip in the future. Israel categorically rejects further rule by the Islamists and threatens that it could resume fighting until the power of the already decimated Hamas is finally broken. Hamas, on the other hand, wants a guarantee that the war will end - probably also in order to reposition itself and regain its old position of power. It also needs to be clarified who is to take over and finance the costly reconstruction in a third phase of the agreement, which is scheduled to last two to five years.

During the 15 months of war, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has never outlined exactly how he envisages a future government in the Gaza Strip. He has only ever emphasized that Hamas must be disempowered and destroyed.

Outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined his plan for the future of the Gaza Strip this week. The following principles are central: firstly, a government led by Palestinians that unites the Gaza Strip with the West Bank and is subordinate to the local autonomous authority. Secondly, there should be no long-term military occupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel, no reduction in the size of the Gaza Strip and no attempts to besiege or blockade it after the conflict.

The imminent change of power in Washington is likely to have been a factor in the progress of the negotiations. Although the administration of US President Joe Biden has always stood by Israel, it has also increasingly criticized the conduct of the war in Gaza. US President-elect Donald Trump, on the other hand, is known to be an ally of Netanyahu and it is questionable how strongly his administration would put Israel's in its place. Against this backdrop, his threats to Hamas were therefore to be taken seriously.

The Republican had said that "all hell would break loose" in the Middle East. It "won't be good for Hamas, and frankly it won't be good for anyone" if the kidnapped hostages are not back by the time of his inauguration next Monday.

In any case, a battle for sovereignty of interpretation has now begun in the USA. Trump took credit for the breakthrough. His election victory had made it clear to the world that his government would strive for peace and negotiate agreements to ensure the security of all Americans and allies. "We have achieved so much without even being in the White House," he wrote on his online platform Truth Social.

Asked about Trump wanting to take credit for the deal, Biden said the framework for the agreement was exactly the one he had proposed in May. However, he had always instructed his negotiating team to coordinate closely with Trump's team to ensure that the US spoke with one voice. Previously, representatives of the White House had emphasized that the Trump team had been continuously informed about the talks in Doha, but that the Biden administration alone had negotiated.