Nato Secretary General steps down Ukraine war? "This could all take a very long time"

What will it take to persuade Russia's president to give up? And how big will Nato be in 2034? Shortly before the Alliance summit in the USA, Secretary General Stoltenberg comments on sensitive issues.

DPA

05.07.2024, 11:29

dpa

Over, over, over: If everything goes according to plan, Jens Stoltenberg will chair a summit meeting of the heads of state and government of the 32 NATO countries for the last time next week. However, the Secretary General of the defense alliance, who has been in office since 2014, does not yet show any signs of diminishing commitment.

In an interview with Deutsche Presse-Agentur, the 65-year-old Norwegian now expresses clear expectations - with regard to support for Ukraine, but also the scenario of a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election.

Mr. Secretary General, it has been official since 26 June. After ten years at the helm of NATO, your mandate will definitely end on October 1. Are you relieved that the NATO states have finally found a successor for you? Or were you secretly hoping that you would be asked to continue after all?

No, I am very pleased that the NATO partners have agreed on my successor. Mark Rutte will be an outstanding Secretary General of NATO. He has the experience and the knowledge needed for the job. I have known him for many years. During all these years he has proven his ability to build consensus - and he will bring that to NATO.

For me, it was a privilege to serve in NATO for ten years. When I arrived, I thought it would be a maximum of four to five years. I was Prime Minister for ten years and never thought I would be Secretary General for the same length of time. But now it's time to go. That's good for NATO and for me.

When you think back, what has been the best moment of your time in office so far?

It is always extremely difficult to rank different events and successes. However, the inclusion of Finland and Sweden certainly has great value for me. This showed Russia's President Vladimir Putin very clearly that he had not managed to close the doors of NATO. He wanted Nato to guarantee that it would not accept any new allies. What he got was the opposite. New allies joined the alliance.

What was the most bitter moment? The start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine? Or the withdrawal from Afghanistan forced by the USA, which ended with the Taliban returning to power?

It is difficult to compare the two. But of course the full-scale invasion of Ukraine represents the biggest security challenge for NATO since the end of the Cold War. It is the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War and probably remains the most dramatic and biggest challenge we have faced during my time in office.

The last major event of your term in office will probably be next week's summit in Washington, which will also be another celebration of the Alliance's 75th anniversary. Do you expect Russia to try to disrupt the celebrations?

There has been speculation about this before almost every summit during my time in office. I remember the Warsaw Summit in 2016, where we decided to deploy troops in the eastern part of the Alliance for the first time. There was speculation as to whether Russia would try to intimidate us. We also heard this before the summit in Madrid and especially before the summit in Vilnius.

I don't know to what extent Russia actually had bigger plans to disrupt our summit, but they didn't succeed. However, there is an ongoing Russian campaign in Europe with sabotage, cyber-attacks and disinformation. We must always be prepared for this to be amplified in some way, whether in connection with the summit or not.

A major support package for Ukraine will be discussed at the summit. What is this about?

I expect the allies to agree on a long-term pledge to demonstrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot simply sit us out. I also expect the allies to agree to a NATO command for Ukraine to create a stronger framework for support, with a headquarters in Wiesbaden.

Contrary to their demands, however, the allies will only give a concrete promise of military aid amounting to at least 40 billion euros for the duration of one year. What do they expect from the fact that in future economic strength will be the decisive factor in determining who contributes how much?

As we have to be prepared for the fact that this could all take a very long time, I think that more transparency, predictability and fair burden-sharing will make the support more sustainable. It will then be easier to maintain. Of course, it is possible to give more than the minimum, but at least we should make sure that everyone contributes their share based on gross domestic product.

Another point is that the stronger our support is, the quicker this war can end. That is the paradox. The more we commit to the long term, the quicker the war can end. Because now Putin thinks he can sit us out. We have to convince him that he can't sit us out, and that can then create the conditions to end the war.

When you took office ten years ago, NATO only had 28 members - today there are four more with Montenegro, North Macedonia, Finland and Sweden. Why don't you make a personal guess: how many members will NATO have in 2034?

I very much hope that Ukraine will be an ally, and I have worked for this during my time in office here at NATO. There are also other candidate countries, but I don't want to speculate on when these processes will be completed.

So far, countries such as Switzerland, Austria and Ireland have not expressed any interest. Can you imagine any movement there?

If they decide to become members, I am confident that NATO can handle it. But we will never put pressure on any country to join. Nato's door is open, but Nato has never forced or pressured any country to join the alliance. That is their decision. For me, that was also very important before Finland and Sweden joined.

Your successor Mark Rutte could have to deal with Donald Trump next year, who - to put it mildly - is not exactly considered an easy ally. You have managed to get along with him reasonably well. Do you have a good tip for Mark Rutte?

First of all, I am absolutely confident that Mark Rutte can work with any elected President of the United States. I also know that Mark Rutte worked with President Trump and met him when he was Prime Minister. I won't give him any advice, but I expect the US to remain a strong ally, regardless of the outcome of the US elections.

Why are you so optimistic?

One reason is that it is in the security interests of the USA to have a strong NATO. It makes the USA stronger and safer. Secondly, there is strong bipartisan support for NATO in the US Congress and in the US public. And third, former President Trump's criticism was not primarily directed at NATO, but at NATO allies for not spending enough.

Today, 23 allies spend two percent of their gross domestic product on defense - compared to three in 2014, when we agreed on the two percent target. That makes a big difference. This shows that the US is not carrying the burden alone. I therefore expect the United States to remain a reliable ally, regardless of the elections.