Exhausted superpower Turmoil in Syria and Georgia makes Putin look old

Bashar al-Assad is fighting to retain power in Syria - and Vladimir Putin cannot help him. The protests in Georgia also show that the Kremlin is weaker than before as a result of the war in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin has been investing in Syria for years. The Kremlin has been supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad since the beginning of the civil war in 2011. In return, the ruler allows Moscow to maintain bases in the Middle East.

The Hmeimim military airbase was put into operation in September 2015: In addition to bombers and multi-purpose aircraft, tanks, artillery and helicopters protect the base in the Latakia governorate. Most of the Alawites live there: This is the Shiite minority to which Al-Assad also belongs.

The Tartus naval base hosted soldiers from the Soviet Union for the first time in 1971. The Russian navy's Mediterranean squadron has had a home port in Syria since 2013. The base has been expanded and extended since 2017.

Is Russia losing its Mediterranean springboard?

Because Turkey restricts passage through the Dardanelles into the Black Sea for Russian naval vessels in times of war, Tartus is not only the only usable port on the Mediterranean for the Kremlin, but also an important springboard for connections to East Africa.

It is also Vladimir Putin's only joker in the political poker game in the Middle East: if this foothold falls away, the 72-year-old will also lose influence. Depending on how long Assad's soldiers hold out and how resolutely the rebels advance, Russia could even face a chaotic retreat like the one experienced by US troops in Afghanistan.

Of course, the Kremlin would support the ruler, but since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Putin has withdrawn many ground troops from Syria. The only way Moscow can still exert some influence is through airstrikes , such as on rebel-held Idlib.

Tehran's influence on the Mediterranean also in danger

The offensive against the government troops also shows that Tehran's importance in the west of the Middle East is dwindling. It is no coincidence that the rebels struck just as Israel signed a ceasefire with Hezbollah, which has been severely weakened by Jerusalem's attacks.

The Shiite militia has always defended the Assad regime, but now the fighters lack strength. If the rebels were to topple the regime in Damascus, Iran's access to the Mediterranean would be blocked. In addition, Tehran would no longer have access to the Golan Heights on the border with Israel.

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Developments in Syria are therefore problematic for both Tehran and Moscow. And it is not only in the Middle East that Russia is threatening to lose ground: Things are also going differently to Putin's wishes in Georgia. Protests against the newly elected pro-Russian government, which wants to suspend rapprochement with the EU for the coming years, are continuing.

Georgia reminds the Kremlin of Ukraine

"We have seen similar events in a whole series of countries," says Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on the incidents in the neighboring country: Moscow is alluding to what led Ukraine back onto a western course a good ten years ago. "The most direct parallel that can be drawn is the events on the Maidan in Ukraine."

The Interior Ministry in Tbilisi announced that 227 people had been arrested in the past few days. According to the statement, 21 police officers were injured. Citing the Ministry of Health, the Interpressnews agency reported that 37 people were taken to hospital yesterday night.

Vladimir Putin would certainly invest more in his friendly government under Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze - if only he had more reserves. But although the Russian army is currently making good progress in Ukraine and Kursk, the Kremlin has nothing to give away at the moment.

Problems on the home front

Above all, Russia is short of soldiers, which is also due to the ever-increasing losses in Ukraine. This becomes clear when Moscow brings in supplies from North Korea or pays ever higher bonuses for recruits. There is also a shortage of manpower on the home front.

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This is exacerbated by Russia's economic problems, which are being fueled by the weakening rouble, Western sanctions and the switch to a war economy. In the new budget, 32.5 percent of spending goes to the military - although this year it is already 28.3 percent.

Developments in Syria, Georgia and Ukraine suggest that the pressure on Putin is increasing. Whether Russia can overcome this power crisis will probably become clear in the next three or four months, when Donald Trump's inauguration reshuffles the geopolitical cards.