Power struggle in Syria Why Assad will be history when Hama and Homs fall
The front in the Syrian civil war is shifting: even if Damascus is still far away, Bashar al-Assad will be out of power when the cities of Hama and Homs fall. Find out why here.
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- Various rebel groups have launched offensives against the Syrian army and captured Aleppo, the country's second-largest city.
- Although Damascus is still around 200 kilometers from the front, the government is likely to fall if the cities of Hama and Homs are captured.
- If this happens, the governorate of Latakia will be cut off: The Alawites, including Bashar al-Assad, live there.
- If the Sunni jihadists cut off Latakia, many Alawite members of the Syrian army would desert in order to protect their families.
- Assad's last straw are reinforcements of Shiite fighters from Iraq and Afghanistan, who are now being transported to Syria.
The timing is no coincidence. As the Israeli army concludes a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, those groups in Syria that are opposed to ruler Bashar al-Assad are making their move.
Some of these groups are enemies of each other: Turkey supports religious fighters such as those of Haiʾat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS) or the Syrian National Army (SNA), who not only want to fight Assad, but also prevent the Syrian Kurds from gaining too much influence.
The reason: if the Kurdish People's Defense Units (YPG) and the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were to establish something in the country that goes beyond autonomy, these forces could serve as a model for Turkish Kurds who are demanding their own state.
Rebels capture all kinds of material in Aleppo
But despite the animosities, jihadists and Kurds have both been attacking these groups since November 27: They are advancing, pushing Assad's troops far back in north-western Syria and overhauling in days what Damascus has built up over the years with the help of Moscow and Tehran.
Within three days, the attackers conquered the metropolis of Aleppo as well as 39 towns and villages. The HTS fighters move on towards Hama, but soon fall back again because their own supplies are overstretched. However, the campaign against Assad, which is still in its infancy, can now boast some successes.
The rebels are not only able to liberate a lot of land from the Syrian army, but also capture a lot of weapons that the army leaves behind. The spoils range from rifles and ammunition, tanks and armored personnel carriers to air defense systems, helicopters and rocket launchers.
This is why Hama and Homs are vital to Assad's survival
Although Damascus is still around 200 kilometers away from the front, Assad's enemies only have to advance around 70 kilometers to the south - and the regime in the capital could fall. This has to do with the importance of the two cities of Hama and Homs.
If the Islamists supported by Ankara capture these two cities, they will cut off two areas from Assad's influence: Tartus and Latakia. These governorates are home to the Russian bases in Syria, whose soldiers are helping the dictator from Damascus.
On the other hand, Latakia is the home of the Alawites: Assad's clan also belongs to this Shiite minority, which at the same time provides a great many members of the Syrian army. If their families were to be threatened by Sunni fighters, many Alawites in the Syrian armed forces would probably desert in order to return home and protect their relatives.
Shiites from Iraq and Afghanistan rush to Assad's aid
In other words, if Homs is conquered, Bashar al-Assad's regime is likely to collapse. The forces that want to keep the 59-year-old in power are also aware of this.
Syrian and Russian warplanes are therefore bombing targets in Idlib, which the rebels hold, while Tehran is sending Shiite fighters into the crisis area to help the Syrian army.
The soldiers of the Hezbollah Brigades from Iraq and the Liwa Fatemiyoun from Afghanistan are due to arrive there today. Israeli media also report that Jerusalem's air force has prevented Iranian transport planes from flying supplies to the Syrian capital.
US planes attack - Kremlin dismisses lieutenant general
The Kurdish-led SDF are currently concentrating their offensive on eastern Syria: they are reportedly attacking the city of al-Mayadin and, according to Syrian media, are also receiving help from US aircraft.
The rebels' successes have consequences. For Moscow too: the Kremlin dismisses the commander-in-chief of the Russian troops in Syria. The pro-Putin channel Rybar first reported on Telegram that Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel had to go.
It seems questionable whether the change in Russian military leadership will have any effect. The Kremlin has withdrawn the majority of its ground troops from Syria due to the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin now runs the risk of losing the Hmeimim military airfield in Latakia and the port in Tartus.