Israel Tug of war over Gaza deal - warning of new war

While indirect negotiations on a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages for prisoners in the Gaza war are set to continue next week, the United Nations is warning of an escalation of the Middle East conflict. Increasing exchanges of fire between the Hezbollah militia and Israel on the border with Lebanon increased the "risk of an all-out war", the UN announced in New York.

Renewed attacks on northern Israel

Shortly beforehand, Hezbollah had again fired several shells at northern Israel, according to the Israeli military. They had hit several areas and some had been intercepted. Two soldiers were reportedly slightly injured. Israeli artillery then attacked areas in southern Lebanon. Fighter jets also attacked a Hezbollah launch site and an observation post, according to reports. The information provided by the Israeli military could not initially be independently verified.

"An escalation can and must be avoided. We reiterate that the risk of a miscalculation leading to a sudden and larger conflagration is real," the UN said. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke on the phone with his Israeli counterpart Joav Galant about the "continuing threat" from Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah and reaffirmed the United States' "ironclad commitment to Israel's security and Israel's right to self-defense," according to the Pentagon.

Gaza negotiations to continue

Meanwhile, after weeks of deadlock, Israel and the Islamist Hamas are once again holding indirect talks on a ceasefire in the Gaza war. Following the return of Israeli delegation leader David Barnea, head of the foreign intelligence service Mossad, from initial talks with the mediators in Doha, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the green light for negotiations to continue next week, his office announced. There are still points of contention between the two sides, he said.

As Israel and Hamas are not negotiating directly with each other, Qatar, Egypt and the USA are acting as mediators. The talks had recently reached an impasse because Hamas had made the release of around 120 Israeli hostages held by it conditional on Israel ending the war in the Gaza Strip. The talks were resumed after the Islamists signaled a certain degree of flexibility.

On the table is a step-by-step plan presented by the mediating states and largely approved by Israel, which initially provides for a temporary ceasefire and the exchange of female, elderly and sick hostages for a larger number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. During the ceasefire, the sides are to negotiate an end to the war and the release of the remaining hostages.

Struggling over stages of the ceasefire plan

The most recent movement in the difficult negotiation process came about because Hamas now appears to have agreed to the step-by-step plan after all. At the same time, however, the Islamists are insisting on a written commitment from the mediators that the phase of negotiations - and thus the temporary ceasefire - will continue without a time limit if no agreement is reached within the planned period, as the Israeli journalist Barak Ravid wrote in the portal "walla.co.il".

Mossad Director Barnea had made it clear to his Qatari host in Doha that Israel could not accept this condition, Ravid wrote, citing two government officials familiar with the process. The mediators would now try to find wording to bridge this gap. "It is the last hurdle that needs to be overcome to get to the actual negotiations on an agreement to release the hostages," Ravid said. However, many of the hostages are probably already dead.

Pressure on Hamas is growing

The fact that Israel's army has taken control of the so-called Philadelphi Corridor in the south of the Gaza Strip has helped to push Hamas back to the negotiating table, Amos Jadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told the Wall Street Journal. The corridor is a narrow strip running along the Gaza side of the border with Egypt, which is crucial for the control of this border. Israel suspects that Hamas has so far been supplied with supplies through tunnels running under the border.

In addition, there is growing pressure on the Hamas leadership from the residents of the Gaza Strip, who are having to endure massive destruction, displacement and the collapse of law and order in the area, the newspaper continued. According to the Hamas-controlled health authority, around 38,000 Palestinians have already been killed in Gaza. This figure includes both fighters and civilians.

However, the Wall Street Journal wrote that it will only become clear whether the Hamas military leadership, which is holding out in tunnels under the sealed-off coastal area, is prepared to give in if negotiations on an agreement make progress. Hamas is "not completely disconnected from what is happening above ground", Gershon Baskin, who was previously involved in negotiations with Hamas, told the newspaper. But a suitable moment for a deal could also have come for Israel, Ofer Shelah, a military analyst at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, told the US newspaper.

Israel's government also under pressure

Israel is about to conclude its military operation in Rafah in southern Gaza, which it sees as Hamas' last bastion and where the Philadelphi Corridor is located. This would not be the end of Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip. However, the Israeli military is now increasingly concerned about an escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah in the north, the newspaper continued. Against this backdrop, the military and Israeli intelligence services are urging the Netanyahu government to make a deal with Hamas, it said.

There are fears in Israel that Netanyahu could refuse to agree, as he did in earlier phases of the negotiations, because he has to show consideration for his ultra-religious and far-right coalition partners. They are resisting possible concessions - such as ending the war before the complete destruction of Hamas - and are threatening to leave the coalition. However, Mossad officials have told the mediators that they are "optimistic" that the cabinet will ultimately accept the deal proposal currently under discussion, the Wall Street Journal quoted an official as saying.

SDA