Political scientist puts CDU success into perspective "This is not the election victory Merz had hoped for"
Germany has voted. Political scientist Klaus Schroeder analyzes the forecasts for blue News. For him, it looks like forming a government will be difficult.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- In all likelihood, Germany's next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz.
- His CDU achieved the best result of all parties in the Bundestag elections on Sunday.
- For political scientist Klaus Schroeder, however, Merz faces difficult coalition talks.
- He analyzes the results in an interview with blue News.
Germany has voted. One thing is clear: the CDU and CSU received the most votes, the AfD doubled its 2021 result, the SPD recorded the worst result in its history, the Greens were the only "traffic light" party to keep their losses in check and the Left Party made it into the Bundestag with ease.
However, it was initially unclear on election night whether the business-friendly Liberals (FDP) or the newly founded left-wing nationalist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) would make it over the 5% hurdle and thus into parliament. Should this be the case, the balance of power in the Bundestag will shift.
It is therefore still unclear which coalition options will emerge. For Klaus Schroeder, professor at the Otto Suhr Institute at the Free University of Berlin, the result of one party in particular is key: "Whether the FDP enters the Bundestag or not is decisive for the formation of a government," he tells blue News.
"The more parties in a coalition, the more unstable"
If the FDP makes it into parliament, Germany would once again face the threat of a three-party coalition. Schroeder takes a critical view of this: "The more parties involved in a coalition, the more unstable it becomes." Because the designated chancellor and CDU party chairman Friedrich Merz has ruled out cooperation with the AfD, the Union's potential coalition partners have great negotiating power, according to the political scientist.
"The CDU/CSU will effectively be open to blackmail," says Schroeder. Either way, forming a government will be very difficult.
The strong result has triggered jubilation in the AfD camp. Justifiably so, says Schroeder, but puts it into perspective: "The result was to be expected based on the polls. Nevertheless, the AfD will probably not be able to participate in government".
Election victory with an aftertaste
Although the CDU/CSU achieved the best result, it had flirted with a higher share of the vote in the run-up to the election. "This is not the election victory that Merz had hoped for," says Schroeder. Especially as, according to the projections, it fell just short of the targeted 30 percent mark. According to Schroeder, the only parties that can be pleased are the AfD and the Left.
Shortly after the first forecasts, Markus Söder, leader of the CDU's sister party CSU, described the SPD as "the best coalition offer" - a clear message to Friedrich Merz. In earlier interviews, he also ruled out cooperation with the Greens. Klaus Schroeder says that the statements made by Bavaria's Minister President should be taken with a pinch of salt: "Söder is an opportunist who will say something different tomorrow."
"Olaf Scholz was the wrong choice"
Meanwhile, the SPD has suffered a historic defeat. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is still in office, has already announced his withdrawal in the elephant round on ARD and ZDF. For Schroeder, the poor result also represents a personal defeat for Scholz: "With Boris Pistorius as candidate for chancellor, the SPD would probably have achieved a few percentage points more. Olaf Scholz was the wrong choice."
However, the political scientist believes it is unlikely that Pistorius, the current Minister of Defense, will succeed Scholz as party leader: "Pistorius probably doesn't want to be in the front row. I suspect that he wants to take off at the next election in 2029," says Schroeder. According to his assessment, Hubertus Heil, currently Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, will probably negotiate a coalition together with Merz as the strong man of the SPD.
It is not yet clear exactly what the new balance of power in the Bundestag will look like. After the election is before the exploratory talks between possible government partners. Until an agreement has been reached in this regard, the current federal government will remain in office.
