Difficult government formation Election winner Merz faces huge tasks
The conservatives have won the election in Germany and the country will probably have a new chancellor. But the extreme parties are also gaining ground and these could be difficult times for Friedrich Merz.
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- The CDU/CSU is the clear winner of the federal elections in Germany.
- Friedrich Merz is now likely to become the new Federal Chancellor.
- Merz now wants to form an effective federal government as quickly as possible. This will not be easy.
Party atmosphere in the CDU headquarters in Berlin's Tiergarten district: "Now Rambo Zambo is allowed to be in the Adenauer House. Tonight we're celebrating and tomorrow morning we'll get down to work," announced party leader and candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz on Sunday evening after the conservatives' victory in the Bundestag elections in Germany.
According to the preliminary election results, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU are clearly ahead of all competitors. Chancellor Olaf Scholz openly admitted the defeat of his Social Democrats.
However, it was not a brilliant victory for the CDU/CSU, as according to the projections, it fell short of the 30 percent mark with around 29 percent of the vote. And the far right, the AfD (Alternative for Germany), achieved a record result with around 20%.
Difficult to form a government
Merz now wants to form a viable government as quickly as possible. This will not be easy. There are many indications of an alliance with the Social Democrats (SPD), which, according to the preliminary results, has a slight majority of seats in parliament.
However, the programmatic differences between the center-right and center-left are considerable, particularly in economic, social and tax policy.
The "traffic light" punished
Scholz, whose "traffic light" coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP, forged at the end of 2021, collapsed in November due to a dispute over the budget, will go down as one of the chancellors with the shortest term in office in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. According to a survey by the opinion research institute infratest dimap, only 26% of respondents were satisfied with the work of the former mayor of Hamburg. Only 30 percent felt that he was up to the job of Federal Chancellor.
While the "traffic light" parties SPD and FDP were punished by voters, the Greens escaped with slight losses. However, the success of the AfD, which almost doubled its 2021 result, shows just how much the issue of migration is on people's minds following the violent acts committed by migrants in recent months. In eastern Germany, its stronghold, it also fulfills the role of a protest party.
Strengthened extremes
The far left also made gains in the election. The Left Party, which focused on social issues such as rising rents during the election campaign and cleverly used social media with its leading candidates Heidi Reichinnek and Jan van Aken, managed to remain in the Bundestag with a strong nine percent.
The newly founded left-wing nationalist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the FDP, which was recently still in government, fell just short of the 5% threshold.
It is possible that the difficult global situation could now prompt the centrist parties to put aside their differences and quickly come together to form a coalition government. After all, decades of certainty in Germany and Europe have been shaken since US President Donald Trump took office.
At the moment, no one knows how long the continent can continue to rely on American military protection - and what a possible "deal" that Trump will negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine will look like.
The world is not waiting for Germany
After the election, however, there will first be exploratory talks between possible government partners and then coalition negotiations. If the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats agree on a "black-red" coalition, as in the days of Scholz's predecessor Angela Merkel, they will still have to put the coalition agreement to a vote by the party base.
Merz has already warned that Germany cannot afford a protracted government formation process. "The world out there is not waiting for us," he said on election night.
