"Swing states" These are the states you need to watch out for in the US election
Not California, Texas or New York - the presidency will be decided elsewhere. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are vying for votes in the swing states. Which are they?
04.11.2024, 07:15
04.11.2024, 07:45
dpa
The race is exciting and the result is open: Voters in the USA will decide on November 5 who will lead their country for the next four years. For Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, every vote counts, especially in the seven "swing states" - those changeable states that sometimes favor one party and sometimes the other. Accordingly, Harris and Trump have been campaigning intensively for voters there.
The reason for this lies in the complex electoral system in the USA: the president is not elected directly by the national vote, but by 538 electors who are delegated in proportion to the population size of the states. In almost all states, the "winner-take-all" principle applies: whoever gets the most votes receives all the electors in the state.
"Midwest" and "Sun Belt" states particularly important
Many states show clear preferences - California is considered a stronghold of the Democrats, Texas is (still) a safe bet for the Republicans. The focus is therefore on states in the "Midwest" and the "Sun Belt", where the situation is not so clear-cut. The Midwest comprises a region in the north of the USA with industrial states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and, in the broadest sense, Pennsylvania, which are often regarded as key states. The "Sunbelt" runs through the south of the USA and is known for its warm climate and rapid population growth. Important "swing states" there are Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
Characterized by a strong middle class, the state is considered indispensable for both candidates. With its many voters, a victory without Pennsylvania is hardly imaginable. In addition to issues such as the high cost of living and the controversial extraction of natural gas through fracking, a racist joke at a Trump event recently caused outrage in the large Puerto Rican community.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Immigration from other states influences the political balance of power in Georgia. After decades of Republican victories, Joe Biden was able to win for the Democrats in 2020 - mainly thanks to a strong mobilization of black voters, who make up around a third of the electorate. However, Harris is particularly struggling to win over younger black men, who have recently increasingly turned to Trump.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
Despite the conservative tradition, Harris is hoping for a surprise victory in North Carolina, not least because of the many newcomers. The fact that the Republicans have put up an extreme candidate for governor in Mark Robinson, who among other things denies the Holocaust and wants to ban abortion, could play into the Democrat's hands. At the same time, North Carolina is still suffering from the consequences of Hurricane Helene. Trump used the disaster to accuse Biden and Harris of poor crisis management - accompanied by misinformation.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Michigan's Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer is popular, but the election result remains uncertain. Many Americans of Arab descent live in this industrial state, which is why Biden's Middle East policy could become a stumbling block - Harris is criticized here as Vice President.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Arizona on the US southern border plays a key role in both the presidency and the majority in the Senate. Migration is a dominant issue here due to its proximity to Mexico. Progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego is running against Trump friend Kari Lake in the senatorial election in Arizona. A referendum on abortion could also mobilize additional votes for the Democrats.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Wisconsin is fiercely contested: Trump narrowly won here against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden was only a wafer-thin margin ahead of him in 2020. Third-party candidates could tip the scales here if they take decisive votes away from Harris or Trump.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Despite fewer electoral votes, Nevada could be decisive. The "Silver State" is struggling with the economic consequences of the pandemic: unemployment is high and the recovery has been sluggish. Three quarters of the population live in and around Las Vegas, the country's gambling capital.
