Germany SPD clarifies K-question: Do it again, Olaf

It was a classic false start to the election campaign for the Social Democrats in Germany after the end of the "traffic light" coalition with the Liberals and the Greens.

Only after an agonizingly long debate about replacing Defence Minister Boris Pistorius as the candidate for chancellor did the SPD leadership make a decision: Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had already pulled the SPD out of a poll slump in 2021 and led it to election victory, should try again.

This time, however, he is starting the race to catch up in a very battered state - as the head of a failed government and with a party behind him that has shown itself to be anything but united in recent days. The new election is scheduled for February 23.

What is the starting position for Scholz?

It could hardly be less favorable. Scholz is going into the new election with the aim of making the SPD the strongest party again and remaining chancellor. In the polls, however, he is a long way from achieving this. The SPD has been stuck in a low for months, currently at 14 to 16 percent. This puts it only in third place behind the CDU/CSU and the right-wing populist AfD. The gap to the CDU and CSU is 16 to 19 percentage points. The Chancellor's personal ratings also leave room for improvement. According to the latest ARD Deutschlandtrend, 20 percent are satisfied with his work and 76 percent are dissatisfied. Pistorius, on the other hand, is the only person in the survey with whom the majority of respondents (61%) are satisfied.

What about the chancellor bonus?

Incumbents can often benefit from this during election campaigns because they are very present in the media, can make decisions and raise their profile on the international stage. However, following the "traffic light" exit, Scholz is the chancellor of a failed government that is only able to act to a limited extent because it no longer has a majority in parliament. And apart from an EU summit on January 19 and 20, he will no longer have any major international appearances.

What are the arguments in favor of Scholz's candidacy?

He has a lot of government experience. Before his three years as Chancellor, he was both Minister of Labor and Minister of Finance under CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel. He also governed Hamburg as First Mayor for seven years and therefore knows exactly what makes the federal states tick. He is deeply involved in all topics, from the war in Ukraine to pensions and the economic situation, and could give long speeches on each of them.

The security politician Pistorius would have had to familiarize himself with a lot of things first - this is a problem in such a short election campaign because the risk of stumbling over public appearances is very high. In addition, Scholz can possibly represent at least one important SPD election campaign issue, the "course of prudence" in the Ukraine war with the no to the delivery of the Taurus missiles, more credibly than a defense minister who has set himself the goal of making the Bundeswehr "fit for war".

What else plays a role in the decision?

Scholz is the chancellor and as such also the SPD's "natural" candidate for chancellor. He virtually chose himself back in the summer. "I will run as chancellor to become chancellor again," he said in July. The party leadership backed him early on and reaffirmed this stance after the "traffic light" coalition's demise and the decision to hold new elections.

In order to replace Pistorius, Scholz would first have had to renounce his candidacy, which would have been against his own convictions. The party leadership would also have had to jump over its shadow and correct itself.

Is the debate about the SPD's candidacy for chancellor now over?

Scholz and the party leadership hope so. "Now it's about unity and finding a common path, and it's about fighting our way out of this situation together as the SPD," said party leader Lars Klingbeil on Thursday evening. However, this is not guaranteed. If the SPD's poll ratings continue to fall in the coming weeks, the debate could flare up again before the party conference on January 11. Only then will Scholz finally be chosen as the candidate.

Will Scholz and the SPD now go into the election campaign damaged?

Yes, the SPD has not managed to resolve the K-issue by mutual agreement. That is a burden for the election campaign. Pistorius also remains the much more popular politician for the time being, which could accompany Scholz throughout the election campaign. Nevertheless, the party does not want to hide the defense minister. "He will play a strong role in this election campaign," said Klingbeil.

Is there any chance at all of catching up?

When Scholz is asked about the poor poll results, he always refers to the 2021 election year, when he was still around 16% behind Armin Laschet of the CDU two and a half months before the election date. After Laschet made an inappropriate joke in the flood area in the German Ahr valley, the mood changed. The SPD narrowly won against the CDU with 25.7 to 24.1 percent. Scholz became chancellor of the first "traffic light" coalition with the Greens and FDP at federal level.

This story will be heard from him again and again during the election campaign. However, the starting position was different back then. Scholz was the newcomer that people were still curious about. Now people know him much better and, according to the polls, there is great dissatisfaction with his government record.

What issues does Scholz want to score points with?

Economic and financial policy and social policy will play a major role: secure pensions, an appropriate minimum wage, tax relief for 95% of the population and the war in Ukraine.

What happens if Scholz fails?

If Scholz fails to achieve his goal of making the SPD the strongest party again, his term of office is likely to end sometime in spring or early summer. He would then be in office for between three and three and a half years - only two of his seven predecessors and one female predecessor stayed in the chancellor's office for a shorter period: Ludwig Erhard (CDU, 1963 to 1966) and Kurt Georg Kiesinger (CDU, 1966 to 1969). Should the SPD enter a new government as the junior partner, it is very unlikely that Scholz will take a step back and become a minister.

SDA