Political upheaval in France Left surprisingly ahead, right-wing nationalists only achieve third place - Prime Minister resigns

Hardly anyone had expected this: Unexpectedly, the left is likely to become the strongest force. Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalists, on the other hand, could only finish in third place. What could happen now?

The day after the unexpected result in the parliamentary elections, France has to reorganize itself. The shift to the right is weaker than expected - a left-wing alliance is expected to become the strongest force in the newly elected National Assembly. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has drawn the first conclusions and announced his resignation.

However, a majority capable of governing is not yet in sight and the left lacks a common leadership. It is also uncertain what the result will mean for Germany and Europe.

According to the Ipsos and Ifop institutes, the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire, made up of left-wingers, communists, socialists and greens, could win between 177 and 192 of the 577 seats - thus causing a major surprise.

The center camp of President Emmanuel Macron and Attal, on the other hand, dropped from 250 to between 152 and 169 seats.

The Rassemblement National (RN) around Marine Le Pen and her allies will grow from 88 to between 138 and 145 seats - and is therefore only likely to end up in third place. However, none of the groups are likely to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats.

French citizens living in Switzerland re-elected Marc Ferracci, who was previously a member of parliament. The friend and best man of President Macron received 34,771 votes, according to preliminary figures from the French Ministry of the Interior. The left-wing candidate and member of the City of Geneva SP, Halima Delimi, received 23,687 votes.

Surprise success with a coalition of convenience

The result comes as a complete surprise in France. After the first round of voting a week ago, forecasts still saw the RN just short of an absolute majority and therefore possibly in a position to form the next government. Nevertheless, the RN made significant gains: it still had 88 seats in the dissolved parliament.

The left and Macron's centrist forces had formed an alliance of convenience before the second round of elections. In order not to take votes away from each other in constituencies where three candidates made it to the second round and thus help the RN to win locally, a number of left-wing and liberal candidates withdrew. They called on their voters to vote against the RN in any case.

France's divided left united just a few weeks ago to form the Nouveau Front Populaire for the parliamentary elections. In the European elections, the parties had run individually. There is a dispute within the left, particularly over the old-left leadership icon Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The populist, who stands out with his Eurosceptic statements and is clearly pro-Palestinian, is heavily criticized even within his own party.

The alliance of leftists, communists, socialists and greens does not have a clear leadership. Nor does it have a common program.

Prime Minister Attal announces his resignation

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has announced his resignation.

President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp no longer has a majority, he announced after the first projections became known. He will submit his resignation to Macron on Monday morning.

Macron can ask Attal and the government to remain in office on a temporary basis for the time being until a majority for a new government is in place. In view of the Olympic Games, which begin on July 26 in Paris, it is also possible that Attal's government will remain in office for a few more weeks.

Left party founder sees government mandate

The founder of the French Left Party sees a clear mandate to govern following the surprising electoral success of the Left Alliance in the parliamentary elections. "The President has a duty to call on the Nouveau Front Populaire to govern," said Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Macron should concede defeat. Mélenchon ruled out negotiations on a merger with Macron's camp.

Serious riots after demonstrations

In Paris and other cities, there were serious riots and clashes between demonstrators and police later in the evening.

In the capital, thousands of people gathered on the Place de la République to celebrate the victory of the left-wing alliance. According to media reports, some of the demonstrators clashed with the police, who used tear gas. Wooden barricades were set on fire.

Auschwitz Committee: "Immense relief"

Meanwhile, the International Auschwitz Committee breathed a sigh of relief. "This election forecast is a tremendous relief for many people in France and many other countries and an encouraging signal for Europe: the firewall of democracy against the extreme right is standing", explained Executive Vice President Christoph Heubner in Berlin.

"The values of the Republic and its memories and experiences from the darkest times of hatred, exclusion and war can be mobilized and are present in the hearts and minds of the people," said Heubner.

Le Pen after French election: Our victory is only postponed

Despite the success of the left-wing alliance, Marine Le Pen from the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) remains calm. "The tide continues to rise and our victory today is only postponed," she said after the first projections. She and her party are on the rise against a coalition of all movements.

After the first round of elections a week ago, forecasts still saw the RN just short of an absolute majority and therefore possibly in a position to form the next government. Now they could only become the third strongest force behind the left-wing alliance and the center camp of President Emmanuel Macron. Nevertheless, the RN has made significant gains compared to the previous National Assembly.

Will there be a minority government or grand coalition?

What will happen after the election is unclear for the time being. The result gives rise to various future scenarios. The left could try to get support from the center forces - either as a minority government with acquiescence or in a kind of grand coalition. In view of the opposing political orientations, however, it is not clear whether this could succeed. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, for example, had explicitly ruled out government cooperation with the left-wing party La France Insoumise.

It is unclear whether head of state Emmanuel Macron would be politically forced to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the left in such a scenario. The National Assembly can topple the government.

Macron has gambled awayRight-wing nationalists could win majority in France

Will Macron have to give up power?

With a prime minister from the left, Macron would have to share power. The prime minister would become more important. What this would mean for Europe is unclear. The left-wing alliance has very different positions on many major political issues.

However, it seems clear that even in a coalition with the left, Macron would not be able to pursue his course unhindered and would be forced to make a number of compromises.

Without a majority, gridlock looms

Should none of the camps find a governing majority, the current government could remain in office as a transitional government or an expert government could be appointed. In such a scenario, France would be threatened with political gridlock. A renewed dissolution of parliament by Macron and new elections would not be possible again until July 2025.

For Europe, this would mean that Paris would no longer be actively available as an important player in Europe and as part of the Franco-German tandem. Instead of new initiatives, administration would be the order of the day in France. Although the office of head of state Macron remains untouched by the election, he would not be able to push through his projects without an effective government.

Brussels and above all Berlin are likely to be relieved by the election result. The right-wing nationalists may be able to expand their parliamentary group in the National Assembly. However, a government seems virtually impossible for them. This would have been a horror scenario for Germany and the European Union. In contrast to Macron, the RN has little faith in its decades of close cooperation with Berlin. The Eurosceptic nationalists are also striving to curb the influence of the European Union in France.

With an RN government, France would have moved massively to the right politically. For the first time since the Vichy regime collaborated with the National Socialists, far-right forces would have returned to power.

Doubts about the change in Le Pen's party

The alliance of convenience between the left and liberal forces was a major disadvantage for the right-wing nationalists in the second round of elections. The fear of a right-wing nationalist government is also likely to have driven many people to the polls.

A number of RN candidates had also come under fire in the past for alleged far-right or anti-Semitic statements. This raised public doubts about Marine Le Pen's "demonization" of the party. With this course, Le Pen has been trying for years to make her party appear more moderate and to make it electable even among the middle classes.

Left-wing camp benefits from unity and fear of the right

The left benefited from their hastily formed alliance. The fact that they left the leadership question open is also likely to have helped them unite those voters behind them who have a problem with the left-wing populist Mélenchon.

In addition, the left is likely to have gained significantly more support due to the uncertainty and fear of a historic shift to the right in France and a right-wing nationalist government.

Macron is doing better than expected

For the unpopular Macron, the result is surprisingly less devastating than expected. Macron failed in his attempt to expand the relative majority of his centrist forces with the new elections. However, his group could still become the second force ahead of Le Pen's right-wing nationalists and be in government with the left.

In the first round of elections, the unity of the left-wing camp proved to be Macron and his supporters' undoing. The dissolution of the National Assembly was seen by many as irresponsible. The French also blamed Macron for this.

SDA