Macron has gambled away Right-wing nationalists could win a majority in France

Macron's plan did not work out: In the first round of the early parliamentary elections in France, the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National is ahead.

This text was last updated at 22:28.

The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National could become the strongest force in the French National Assembly in the future. According to projections, it and its allies came out ahead in the first round of the early parliamentary elections in France with 33 to 34.2 percent.

President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp came third with 20.7 to 22 percent, behind the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire with 28.1 to 29.1 percent. However, how many seats the blocs will get in the National Assembly will only be decided in run-off elections on July 7.

The result is a bitter defeat for French President Emmanuel Macron. He had been counting on the early election to increase the relative majority of his centrist forces in the lower house. This now seems extremely unlikely.

Initial forecasts assume that Marine Le Pen's right-wing populists and their allies could become the strongest force in the lower house with 230 to 280 seats. However, they could fall short of an absolute majority with 289 seats.

Le Pen wants an absolute majority

Le Pen called for the party to achieve an absolute majority in the upcoming run-off elections. "Nothing is won, the second round is decisive." Nothing is more common in politics than a change of power, said Le Pen. She warned against false fear-mongering against her party. RN party leader Jordan Bardella announced his intention to take over the government as prime minister with an absolute majority in parliament.

The left could also make gains and reach 125 to 200 seats. Macron's Liberals are in danger of dropping to just 60 to 100 seats. However, it is difficult to say exactly how the seats will be distributed. Before the second round of voting, the parties can still forge local alliances that will influence the outcome of the election.

Macron camp and the left want to prevent a right-wing victory

The founder of the Left Party has already called on his own candidates to withdraw in certain cases: In constituencies where the left-wing alliance came third and the right-wingers came first in the run-off elections, the left-wing candidates should withdraw.

The Macron camp also announced: In the constituencies where they finished in third place, they would withdraw in favor of the candidates capable of beating the Rassemblement National.

If predictions prove correct and neither camp wins an absolute majority, France would face tough negotiations to form a coalition. A coming together of the fundamentally different political players is currently not foreseeable. To make matters worse, the French political culture is geared more towards confrontation than cooperation.

Together, the opposition forces could potentially topple the current government of the Macron camp. However, without an agreement on cooperation, no other government is likely to find a majority in parliament. In such a case, it is possible that the current government would remain in office as a kind of transitional government or that a government of experts would be appointed.

In such a scenario, France would be threatened with political gridlock. A government without a majority would not be able to initiate new projects. A renewed dissolution of parliament by Macron and new elections would not be possible again until July 2025.

Political crisis looms

For Germany and Europe, this would mean that Paris, as an important player in Europe and part of the Franco-German tandem, would suddenly no longer be actively available. Instead of new initiatives, administration would be the order of the day in France. Head of state Macron's office would remain untouched by the election, but without a government capable of taking action, he would not be able to push through his projects either.

If the RN performs even better than predicted and wins an absolute majority, Macron would effectively be forced to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the right-wing nationalists. This is because the lower house can topple the government. In such a scenario, Macron would lose a significant amount of power and the prime minister would become more important. Germany and Europe would have to prepare themselves for the divided country no longer pursuing a clear course and becoming less reliable.

In contrast to Macron, the RN has little regard for its decades of close cooperation with Germany. The Eurosceptic nationalists are also striving to decisively curb the influence of the European Union in France. They could try to put the brakes on a number of projects in Brussels for their own interests. They are also against the enlargement of the EU and are skeptical about NATO.

Right-wingers benefit from European elections

As president, Macron has priority in foreign policy. However, if RN leader Jordan Bardella or another right-wing populist becomes prime minister, he will find it difficult to continue his line unhindered.

The RN benefited from the momentum of the European elections, in which the party became the strongest force in France. For years, Le Pen has also been trying to "demonize" the RN and distance it from its far-right history and party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen and his trivialization of the Holocaust.

With its softening course, it has made the party electable far into the middle classes. In Jordan Bardella, there is now also a fresh politician at the helm who is more level-headed than the string-puller Le Pen and is not connected to her family clan. The party is also likely to have benefited from the uncertainty caused by the multiple global crises as well as frustration and disappointment with Macron.

The surprising unity of the left-wing camp in the election may have proved fatal for President Macron and his supporters. He had repeatedly called for cooperation against the extremes. However, neither the conservative Républicains nor the Socialists or Greens joined forces with him for the election. The dissolution of the National Assembly was seen by many in France as irresponsible. The French also blamed Macron for this.

The left-wing camp scored points with the newly formed alliance, which a number of people from the left-wing spectrum backed despite internal disagreements. The fact that the question of leadership, i.e. who would become prime minister if Macron won the election, was left open, is also likely to have brought voters on board who are critical of an alliance with the populist far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

According to the institutes, voter turnout was between 65.8 and 67 percent. According to the Élysée Palace, Macron explained that the high voter turnout showed the will to clarify the political situation. With regard to the RN result, he said it was time to form a broad, clearly democratic and republican coalition for the second round of voting.