New realities in Syria Jihadists in power - the USA is playing hardball, Putin is changing the tone and Israel is creating facts
Abu Muhammad al-Julani and his Islamist HTS are the new strongmen in Damascus. The leader is on the US terror list, but that could soon change. Russia is also approaching the jihadists. Israel, however, is not.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- The Islamist HTS and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani control Damascus and other important cities.
- Al-Julani has been on a US terror list since 2013: Washington is now discussing whether he could be removed from it.
- Moscow is also changing course: Russia is no longer calling the HTS "terrorists", but "armed resistance".
- Experts agree that the Kremlin must negotiate in order to preserve a last chance to keep the bases in Syria.
- Israel is playing it safe because of the jihadists: Jerusalem has already flown over 300 airstrikes in Syria and is reportedly also advancing on the ground.
It is the Hai'at Tahrir ash-Sham that initiated the latest offensive in Syria, and it is also the HTS that entered Damascus eleven days later. Without this group, which brings together various Islamist militias, Bashar al-Assad would not have been overthrown.
It goes without saying that HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani is now a man in demand. In fact, the USA has long been interested in him: information leading to his capture is worth a whopping ten million dollars to Washington, as the State Department placed the man on its list of global terrorists in 2013.
The reason for the bounty: According to the US, al-Julani has taken part in "several terrorist attacks in Syria", kidnapped Kurds and massacred Druze. He has sworn allegiance to al-Qaeda and is a hardliner, the report continues.
Will the USA now take al-Jaulani off the terror list?
Now this wanted man and his men have conquered Damascus. Washington will be relieved to note that al-Jaulani has shown himself to be moderate since the beginning of the offensive. Even when Aleppo was captured, there were hardly any problems with the jihadists: the Christians were able to hold church services and prepare for Christmas. In Damascus, too, he has now reportedly urged his people to behave themselves.
Joe Biden's government wants to face reality on Syrian soil in its final days: "There is a big scramble to see if, how and when we can take HTS off the list," an anonymous source told Politico. The President, but also the Secretary of State, could easily remove the name from the list, the source added.
Natasha Hall from the Center for Strategic and International Studies recalls that the HTS had "previously actually fought the so-called Islamic State in many conflicts in eastern Syria". This was probably coordinated with foreign powers, the Middle East expert believes.
Russia: a whole new tone
Moscow also has to adapt to the new circumstances - and Vladimir Putin has a lot to lose. Because the Kremlin has always stuck by Assad, Russia, along with Iran, is already seen as the big loser of the overthrow.
The language reveals that a rethink has taken place: while the rebels were still referred to as "terrorists" by Russia before December 8, they have been known as the "armed opposition" since the fall of Damascus.
A former Russian diplomat believes that Putin will approach the matter pragmatically: "Moscow prefers to negotiate with those who have power and control," explains Nikolai Sokov in the Guardian."I assume Russia wants to hold on to its bases through negotiations if it can," adds Dara Massicot from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Resources they can offer: Money, natural resources, oil and gas, a limited number of mercenaries," Massicot elaborates. "The question is whether the Syrian coalition would accept anything from them." They will not have forgotten the attacks by the Russian air force: Difficult talks lie ahead for the Kremlin.
Israel: How far does Jerusalem's buffer zone go?
While the USA and Russia are trying to come to terms with the new situation, Israel does not want to take any risks in view of the military successes of the jihadists. Since the fall of Damascus, Jerusalem's air force has been bombing targets such as Assad's chemical weapons factories and weapons depots, as well as the capital itself.
Photos circulating on social media showed destroyed missile launchers, helicopters and fighter jets. Since the change of power, Israel is said to have flown 310 airstrikes alone: HTS fighters are also likely to have been targeted. But Israel's army is apparently also gaining ground on the ground: from the Golan Heights, it is apparently establishing a corridor on the border with Lebanon.
Israel itself has contradicted reports that Israeli tanks are close to Damascus. A military spokesperson wrote on X that reports of Israeli forces approaching the capital were "completely false". Turkey has nevertheless sharply criticized the Israeli military's advance into Syrian territory.
The advance is a violation of a 1974 agreement on a buffer zone within Syria, the Turkish Foreign Ministry declared today. Ankara accuses Israel of displaying the "mentality of an occupier" - and this at a time when peace and stability in Syria were emerging as a possibility. In the statement, the ministry emphasized Turkey's support for Syria's "sovereignty, political unity and territorial integrity".
