Secret paper has emerged How Putin could use the Ukraine negotiations in his favor
A strategy paper relating to the FSB secret service has been made public. It shows how Putin could use Ukraine negotiations to put Russia in a position of geopolitical strength.
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- A strategy paper allegedly written for the Russian secret service FSB has been made public.
- The paper shows how the Kremlin could try to use the Ukraine negotiations to its geopolitical advantage.
- One option that emerges is the possibility of Russia giving the USA access to raw materials on Russian and Russian-annexed territory - with the aim of normalizing diplomatic relations.
Trump is a historic opportunity for Putin to strengthen Russia's position of power in the long term. That the Kremlin recognizes this is not a bold thesis.
The "Washington Post" (WP) has apparently seen this in black and white. It quotes from a strategy paper written by a Russian think tank for the FSB secret service.
The document ended up with a Western intelligence service, where WP journalists were able to view it. Asked about this, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the US newspaper that the government had no knowledge of such recommendations.
Even if they do not represent an official doctrine of the Russian government, the recommendations show what Moscow's overarching goals could be in the coming years.
"Kiev regime must be dismantled"
The external strategists recommend getting rid of the hated Zelenskyi government with the help of the Trump administration. Kiev's orientation towards the West is one of the reasons why the Kremlin has been attacking Ukraine since 2014 and increasingly bringing it under its military control.
A Ukrainian negotiation offer to allow pro-Russian parties to take part in elections in Ukraine does not go far enough for the strategists. According to the WP, the "Kiev regime" cannot be renewed from within. It must be completely dismantled.
A primary goal with regard to the war in Ukraine is to convince the US government that a quick end is not possible. "A peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis cannot be found before 2026," the Washington Post quotes from the document.
The consensus is that Russia, with its superiority on the battlefield, has time on its side and benefits from prolonging the fighting in contrast to Ukraine, which appears exhausted.
No NATO membership, no foreign peacekeepers
According to the strategy paper, foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine are out of the question for Russia. And, as is already known, Ukraine should never be able to become a member of NATO.
The result would be a Ukraine that is no better able to defend itself against Russian attacks than it is today. Moscow also wants Russian sovereignty over the annexed Ukrainian territories to be recognized.
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Cookie SettingsHowever, the paper does not only set out favorable options for Russia in direct connection with Ukraine. Rather, the negotiations to end the war are a door opener for the Kremlin to put itself in a better position globally.
And the key to this door is President Trump.
A former Russian diplomat tells WP that Putin could try to drag out the negotiations while always showing openness and flexibility. Russia can present itself as a friend of Trump and the US who can help him achieve his goals, the ex-diplomat said.
Entice Trump, divide Nato
The strategy paper also contains concrete proposals on how Moscow could try to gain Washington's trust. One possibility is to offer the USA access to raw materials on Russian or Russian-controlled territory - including in conquered areas in Ukraine.
This could lead to tensions between the USA and China as well as between the USA and Europe, which strategists see as an advantage for Russia. Dmitri Alperovitch, a Russian-born geopolitics expert based in the USA, also sees driving a wedge into NATO as the "bigger prize" that Putin is striving for.
The primary goal must be to normalize diplomatic relations between Washington and Moscow. Russia could offer not to station any new ballistic missiles in Belarus.
In return, the USA would have to refrain from stationing new missile systems in Europe. Russia could also stop supplying weapons to states that Washington considers unfriendly. In return, the USA would stop its military aid to Ukraine.
Securing advantages before Trump is gone
It is unclear how much of this unofficial paper will flow into Putin's policy. An academic close to Russian diplomacy told the Washington Post that a general government consensus could be gleaned from such papers - even if Kremlin spokesman Peskov said the government's positions were better thought through than those in the paper appear to be.
It is obvious that the current developments surrounding the war in Ukraine offer the Russian government opportunities to position itself for the years to come.
However, it also seems clear to strategists that the wind could change if Trump's political opponents in Washington regain power. This is why the recognition of Russian sovereignty over the conquered territories is so important. Without it, the conflict could flare up again in the medium term - "for example after the next change of government in the USA".