Middle East expert on Syria How did the Assad regime collapse so quickly?
After the fall of Assad, Syria is at a turning point. Middle East expert Bente Scheller assesses what could happen next and what impact the revolution will have on the surrounding powers.
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- Bashar al-Assad has ruled as President of Syria since 2000, and on December 8, 2024, Syrians conquered the capital Damascus, led by the Islamist militia Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
- According to Middle East expert Bente Scheller, Israel's weakening of the Iranian presence facilitated the overthrow.
- The fall of Assad created space for reforms and civil society developments, but the danger of conflict and unresolved power issues remains.
After the Assad regime's reign of terror in Syria, one of the questions is what will happen to the huge power apparatus. Syria expert Bente Scheller believes that the conditions for a balanced, pluralistic order are now favorable.
Ms. Scheller, for years it was said that Assad was firmly in the saddle. How could the regime collapse so quickly?
Stability through dictators is wishful thinking: Assad's regime was not based on the strong support from the population that he wanted to make credible for himself with over 90 percent of the votes cast in the presidential elections. He brutally fought his opponents and intimidated his supporters by presenting himself as their only hope.
Because he was so eager to maintain his power at all costs, he no longer had the state's monopoly on the use of force exercised by the institutions, but ruled almost exclusively through the secret service and marauding, mafia-like militias - and of course with the military support of Russia and Iran. After Assad, in particular, repeatedly let Russian efforts at normalization come to nothing, Putin decided to let him fall.
The Middle East was reorganized after every attack on Israel: What role did Israel play in the overthrow in Syria?
About the person
Bente Scheller is head of the Middle East and North Africa department at the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Berlin. She is close to the German Green Party.
The Israeli strategy of pushing back Iran and weakening Iran's most important allied militia by wiping out its leadership elite has made Iran's previous and central involvement impossible. In this respect, this has created a favorable situation for the HTS offensive.
However, the fact that Syrians from all parts of the country have taken courage - after barrel bombs and chemical weapons were used against them, the regime tortured thousands to death and displaced half of the population - is a credit that Syrians can absolutely take credit for and be proud of.
Trump has said that the USA should stay out of Syria. Isn't that a carte blanche for Turkey, Iran, Russia and other local powers?
Trump has lacked a strategy for the Middle East in his first term. He is therefore not seen as a reliable partner - and the Kurds in north-east Syria could do with one to be able to assert themselves. However, we have repeatedly seen rapid volte-face in foreign policy, particularly with regard to Syria. It remains to be seen what Trump will ultimately do.
Syria was a secular state for decades. Could this help with the reorganization?
Many Syrians have described Assad's rule as sectarian rather than secular. Hafez al-Assad (father of Bashar al-Assad and former president of Syria, editor's note) did not invent the coexistence of denominations, but found it that way during his coup.
But his all-pervading secret service system has ensured that mistrust has been sown deep into families and places of common togetherness have been denied. As a result, encounters have often been segregated according to denomination and the individual groups have lived side by side.
What role do the Kurds play and what role do the Christians play?
It is impossible to imagine culture and social interaction without them. Many Syrians are also proud of the entire cultural heritage that is reflected in the country, not only in buildings but also in traditions. However, many Christians have emigrated over the years - for fear of Islamists, but also because the lack of prospects in the situation has robbed many of their confidence.
The regime has always stirred up fear of "the others", so there is a great deal of uncertainty - especially since the regime has simply given up everything without making any effort to find a negotiated solution. The regime has torpedoed this for years.
The future is also uncertain for the Kurds, but around 300,000 of them had no citizenship under the Assad regime. Kurdish traditions and culture were not welcome there either, and political rights certainly not. Negotiating all of this should now be more possible than before - provided Turkey also exercises restraint.
Assad is an Alawite and built his regime heavily on members of his own minority, but not only: Sunnis such as his wife Asma al-Assad were also heavily involved. The Sunnis make up the majority in Syria. Will they be in charge in the future?
The Sunnis make up the majority of the population and they were also the focus of Assad's persecution and expulsion. In this respect, I fear that many still have a score to settle and I hope that there will be the possibility of legal proceedings for the injustice experienced by all sides. That would be the best guarantee against revenge and further injustice.
Hezbollah and Iran are the two big losers. Is this also an opportunity for Lebanon to build a new order?
That would be desirable. As shaken as the country is by the financial crisis, corona, the port explosion and the political crisis, it would be fantastic if there was a new start here with a new government. But Hezbollah is not Lebanon's only problem.
A system in need of reform would have to reinvent itself - which could be difficult, especially in times of regional uncertainties. Also, the war that Israel is waging in Lebanon is not over; at the moment it is merely a ceasefire that expires at the end of January.
Will Hezbollah or Iran nevertheless remain a power factor in Syria and Lebanon?
Their experience here has been bad. In Assad's final days, a group of Hezbollah fighters crossed the border and were immediately bombed by Israel on the Syrian side. Ultimately, it was also the operation in Syria that made Israel's effective action against Hezbollah possible in the first place, as movement patterns and infiltration have turned Hezbollah's structures into an open book on the organization's top-secret hierarchies.
Following the overthrow, the militia alliance is now working on establishing a transitional government. What scenarios do you see for Syria?
Even if there is a risk that no balanced, pluralistic order can be found and many pitfalls lurk on the path to a better future, the conditions have never been so good. Many networks in and outside Syria have been working on plans for constitutional reforms and other steps towards a civil order - and so far, things are proceeding in a fairly orderly fashion in Syria, which is not to be taken for granted in a situation of upheaval.
What scenarios do you see for the Middle East as a whole?
Important decisions are being made within Syria, but also by the other states in the region. Iran has been permanently weakened, as has Hezbollah, whose power has changed significantly not only in the region but also in Lebanon itself. For Turkey, it will be important to see how the situation in the north develops and how Syria will be organized in the future - as a central state as before, or with extensive autonomy for the regions - including the Kurds?
Israel speaks of being able to imagine different relations with Syria. But military action is also a danger - for internal Syrian discussions and for more constructive relations in the future. After all, the heaviest Israeli bombardments are taking place in Syria right now, and Israel is advancing further on the Golan, which it already partially occupies in violation of international law - this does not point to an outstretched hand.
And which scenario do you think is the most likely?
A new beginning in Syria is only possible if Assad is overthrown. As indescribably cruel as the regime has ruled, surpassing even actors such as IS many times over, leaden years of graveyard peace would have been on the horizon - at a continuing high price for the civilian population.
When the conflict had long been described from the outside as "frozen", 20 to 30 people continued to die every day. Despite all the risks, I don't think the signs have been this positive since 2011. The Syrian people have overthrown Assad's regime and IS with incredible courage and determination. The most important things have been achieved, but the most difficult things are perhaps still to come and there is a long way to go. But I am confident that Syria can have a better future.
Note on transparency: The interview with Bente Scheller was conducted in writing due to time constraints.