Xi soon isolated? Beijing threatens Trump with war - but behind the scenes, China is trembling more than ever
With new punitive tariffs, US President Donald Trump is pushing ahead with the confrontation with China. Beijing is looking for counter-strategies - but President Xi Jinping's room for maneuver is shrinking.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- Donald Trump has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 20 percent to put pressure on Beijing.
- China is responding with export controls and diplomatic alliances to protect itself.
- Experts are warning of a long phase of economic and geopolitical tensions between the superpowers.
No sooner had Donald Trump won the presidential election than China's head of state Xi Jinping had a comprehensive analysis of the Cold War between the USA and the Soviet Union drawn up.
His concern: could China become as isolated as the Soviet Union was back then? This fear is not unfounded, as theWall Street Journalwrites, citing insiders.
While Trump is considered unpredictable in foreign policy, he is pushing ahead with a clear anti-China strategy. The US president sees trade relations with Beijing as an economic disadvantage for America and believes his election victory has strengthened his resolve to push through tougher measures.
Beijing threatens: "We are ready for any kind of war"
At the beginning of February 2025, Donald Trump issued a decree imposing an additional 10% tariff on practically all Chinese imports - officially to stem the influx of fentanyl and chemical precursors.
Just a few weeks later, the tariff was even increased to 20 percent. Beijing reacted promptly: China announced that it would counter with "all necessary measures" if Washington insisted on its demands. "We are ready for any kind of war," threatened Beijing.
Behind the scenes, the situation is tense. In many areas, China is more economically dependent on the USA than vice versa.
Michael Pillsbury, a China expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation, describes Beijing's situation to the Wall Street Journal as difficult: "They're desperate. Their economic growth has taken a hit, and now new tariffs are on top of that."
USA tightens export controls for critical technologies
High technology is a key area of rivalry. A process of cutting the technological cord began during Trump's first term in office and is now accelerating. The USA is continuously tightening export controls on critical technologies to China.
For example, in December 2024 - while Joe Biden was still in office - the US Department of Commerce (BIS) announced new restrictions designed to specifically impair China's ability to produce modern semiconductors for AI and advanced weapons systems.
Donald Trump has made it clear that he will continue or even expand this policy. Diplomatically, his second term in office has been characterized by sometimes contradictory signals.
On the one hand, the USA is resolutely pursuing the containment of China in cooperation with allies. Washington is intensifying its cooperation with traditional allies in Asia: with Japan and Australia as well as with India, South Korea and the ASEAN states. Joint military exercises, such as trilateral maneuvers between the USA and Japan and South Korea, are to take place in this form for the first time in 2025.
Beijing wants to benefit from Trump's policy
On the other hand, Donald Trump's unconventional leadership style is also straining some alliances. Traditional partners in Europe in particular are reacting with some irritation to his "America First" policy.
The EU fears that it could also become the target of punitive measures - for example, there is the threat that Trump could impose import tariffs not only on China but also on the EU (for example on cars).
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Cookie SettingsBeijing is trying to profit from this: Chinese diplomats are campaigning in Berlin, Paris or Rome for an "independent" China policy for Europe and warning against American capture.
And they are signing free trade agreements with numerous countries, including Switzerland. Such appeals are falling on fertile ground in some cases, as many European companies are involved in business with China and fear further escalation.
Despite progress, China needs Western know-how
For China, the semiconductor restrictions in particular represent a sensitive Achilles' heel in relations with the USA. State-of-the-art microchips are fundamental for AI, 5G, cloud computing and military applications - despite great progress, Beijing is still dependent on Western know-how and equipment.
Both sides are also imposing restrictions on the respective technology companies. While the US is blacklisting Chinese companies, cutting market access or reviewing financial sanctions, China is increasingly taking action against US companies in its own country.
At the same time as Trump's first round of tariffs, anti-monopoly proceedings were initiated against Google in China.
Beijing is thus signaling that US companies in the Chinese market can serve as a bargaining chip if Washington harasses China's companies. At the same time, China is keen not to completely scare off important international investors.
In the second round of retaliation, prominent global players were avoided and lesser-known US companies were targeted instead - probably in order not to upset the balance of the global market.
A strong reaction on the surface - restrained in the background
It is a picture that runs through the current situation. On the surface, China is threatening a strong reaction. At the same time, however, Beijing is avoiding an overreaction in order to prevent the situation from escalating completely. According to analysts from Reuters, China deliberately chose a rate of 10 to 15 percent for the retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which is below the US level of 20 percent.
Beijing is apparently hoping to bring Donald Trump to the negotiating table after all - a so-called "grand bargain" is on the cards. Head of state Xi Jinping is also holding back with overly harsh rhetoric so far.
Such calculations harbor risks: American hardliners warn that a "G2 deal" between Trump and Xi could come at the expense of US allies - for example, if Trump carelessly swaps security guarantees in the Western Pacific (for Taiwan, for example) for Chinese promises that are difficult to verify.
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Cookie SettingsNevertheless, Beijing is aware of the seriousness of the US strategy. Internal analyses by Chinese think tanks paint a rather gloomy picture: the majority of Chinese experts are very pessimistic about the next few years of relations. Trump's return will be accompanied by a new generation of uncompromising opponents of China in Washington, which leaves little room for détente.
Some Chinese analysts speak of "extreme realists" in the Trump team who have a strong ideological bias against China. Under these conditions, the tenor is that China must prepare for a longer phase of confrontational relations.
Illusions about a rapid improvement are misplaced: "China should have no illusions - it must adjust to a new MAGA-influenced reality," commentators warn with a view to Trump's nationalist agenda.
Beijing focuses on other regions of the world
In view of the frontal US strategy, China is also intensifying its search for counter-alliances and influence in international institutions. One pillar is the partnership with Russia, which was demonstratively strengthened in 2024.
Together, Beijing and Moscow propagate a "multipolar world order" and oppose Western sanctions or democracy agendas.
This alliance is asymmetrical, as Russia is economically much weaker than China. However, both sides benefit geopolitically: China receives support in the UN Security Council and a military distraction in Europe that binds the USA. China is also expanding its influence in the Global South.
In October 2023, Xi Jinping celebrated the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative with a summit in Beijing, which was attended by numerous heads of state from Asia, Africa and Latin America. China's investment and development offers in these regions provide Beijing with political goodwill and access to raw materials, markets and even military bases, for example in Africa.
Chinese experts call for China to strengthen itself
These countries are becoming all the more important for China the more closed off Western markets are. For example, China's exports to friendly or geopolitically neutral countries have recently increased significantly - exports to Russia, Southeast Asia and the Gulf states are growing at double-digit rates, while exports to the USA are stagnating.
However, the core view in Beijing remains the same: the days of easy cooperation are over and China is entering a phase of fierce competition to which it must respond by strengthening itself.
Nevertheless, more optimistic experts believe that China is now far better positioned to withstand this competition than it was a few years ago - it has learned from its experiences with Obama, Trump and Biden and is more resilient in the face of American pressure
Accordingly, the advice of many Chinese experts is to strengthen the country on its own.
Instead of hoping for concessions from the US, Beijing should make its own economy robust, boost the domestic economy, reduce technological dependencies and deepen alternative partnerships. This motto follows an old Chinese proverb: "To forge iron, you have to be strong yourself."
