Situation picture Ukraine 50,000 North Koreans and Russians to recapture Kursk

Moscow has reportedly gathered 50,000 soldiers to recapture Kursk before any peace negotiations begin under Donald Trump. North Koreans are also helping the Kremlin.

How will the war in Ukraine change when Donald Trump moves into the White House? The incoming US president wants to settle the conflict within 24 hours of taking office. One option for him could be to freeze the border.

Depending on what else is negotiated, this could suit Vladimir Putin. A ceasefire would put the Kremlin in a position to allow the army and its stocks to recover before it attacks again. However, Moscow will only agree to a freeze on the front if the situation in Kursk is resolved.

If Kiev had to cede the territories that Russia has occupied, the same would have to apply to the Russian territory in Kursk that the enemy controls. It is hard to imagine that Putin would accept losing his heartland. In other words, Kursk must be recaptured - and preferably by January 20, when Trump's second term of office begins.

50,000 soldiers are ready in Kursk

As the New York Times (NYT) reports, Moscow has assembled 50,000 soldiers in Kursk. The Kremlin did not even have to withdraw troops from other parts of the front to reach this total. Instead, the group is being augmented with soldiers from North Korea.

According to the report, the North Koreans, who are actually part of the army's XI Corps, are divided into two units in Eastern Europe: an assault group and a support group. They are currently training in the far west of Kursk for their upcoming deployment alongside Russian troops: The program ranges from artillery fire and clearing trenches to mine laying and infantry tactics.

George Barros from the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War believes that the Asians are well organized. "The one thing they are perhaps even better at than the Russians is cohesion and discipline," he tells the NYT.

"Younger and in better shape"

So has the help from Pyongyang even mattered so far? "Thousands of additional infantrymen can make a difference in Kursk," replies Rob Lee, a military expert from the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. "These soldiers are younger and in better shape than many Russian regulars."

Barros does not believe that the current contingent will remain: He reckons that up to 15,000 North Koreans could reinforce the Russian army in the future - every month. The question is how far they will go: Would they stop at the border or would they also advance onto Ukrainian soil with their Russian comrades?

Kiev is also preparing for Trump's second term: "Winter is a critical point. I hope the war is coming to an end," a Ukrainian source told the Reuters news agency. "Now we are defining the positions for the negotiations for both sides."

Biden sends missiles - and puts the brakes on

Joe Biden wants to help Ukraine while he still can: According to the "Wall Street Journal" (WSJ), the incumbent US president has sent 500 interceptor missiles for the Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems to Kiev. Paris and London are also putting pressure on Biden to lift the restrictions on long-range weapons, writes the British "Telegraph".

At the same time, France has announced a further delivery of Scalp cruise missiles to Ukraine, which the army is to use explicitly to attack the enemy behind the front line. The flaw, however, is that the French missiles also contain US technology, which requires the White House to approve their use.

So far, the White House has only given Volodymyr Zelensky a long leash when it comes to anti-radar missiles: According to the WSJ, the US has given Kiev several examples of the brand-new AGM-88E Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missiles (AARGM), which are already in use against Russian air defenses.

Russia pays the price in blood

Russia continues to advance on the front. Putin's army is gaining ground, particularly in Donetsk in the south-east of Pokrovsk. However, the price that has to be paid is still high: most recently, 1770 Russian soldiers are said to have been injured or killed in one day.

This echoes what Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said about October: According to the British Chief of the Defense Staff, an average of 1500 Russians were injured or killed every day last month.

The US estimates 1200 Russian casualties per day, but even that number is too high, writes the Institute for the Understanding of War: "The Russian military almost certainly cannot sustain a daily casualty rate of more than 1200 in perpetuity while Putin tries to avoid another involuntary call-up of reservists."