The Ukraine question "Like Poland in 1939" - or is Trump playing the strong man after all?

What will the USA's future Ukraine policy look like? Some believe Kiev will fall, others say it can't get any worse - or that Trump will take action: the New Yorker is believed to be capable of anything.

What do people in Kiev think about Donald Trump's election victory? "We have to accept that: This is the choice of these people," says "optimist" Oleksander in a street poll conducted by the "Kyiv Independent". "He will probably be a great president."

Three female students give a completely different answer: "His relationship with Putin is too close. He won't help us in the war," says Sofiia. Slava thinks Trump is an "unpredictable missile" because "no one knows where it will fly, where it will hit". And her friend Oksana is clear: "We are in A**** like the Poles in 1939."

What the civilians' statements have in common with those of frontline soldiers who were interviewed on the subject is the view that the USA can choose whoever it wants. Some hope for a tougher stance against Putin. Some are concerned that freezing the war would end up with it breaking out again in five or ten years.

President on borrowed time: Biden reacts - too late

However, according to a media report, freezing the front line is exactly what Trump is planning. According to the report, Ukraine should not join NATO for the next 20 years. By stopping arms aid, Kiev is to be forced to the negotiating table if necessary in order to achieve the peace that the Republican has promised.

This prospect has the still-president on his toes: "The administration wants to move forward in order to put Ukraine in as strong a position as possible," according to Reuters reports from Joe Biden's circle. This will be of little use: it takes weeks to ship heavy equipment.

There will be no crying after Joe Biden in Ukraine. One of the frontline soldiers quoted above calls his administration "impotent". Although the USA is the most important arms supplier under him, the Democrat is also an obstructionist. For example, when he put the brakes on a donation of two early warning aircraft to Sweden because they contain US technology.

"It's important for Trump to look like a strong man"

How will Trump affect this war? A former US ambassador in Kiev told Times Radio that this also depends on which advisors the 78-year-old chooses and who becomes his foreign minister. The 72-year-old rules out the possibility of Putin simply claiming four regions that his army does not even fully occupy in any negotiations.

"It is important for Trump to look like a strong man, and if he goes along with the views of his naive advisors and gives Putin a victory in Ukraine, he would look extremely weak," says Herbst, who believes that the Kremlin will ultimately be disappointed by Trump's candidacy: "It is likely that they will overplay their hand in possible negotiations with Ukraine."

Steve Moore, an ex-advisor to Trump, reminds us via the Kyiv Post that Mike Johnson has always voted against Ukraine in the past. However, in April, the Speaker of the House of Representatives helped approve the last Ukraine aid. A learning process is possible. Citizens could also exert pressure via Republican MPs in their constituencies to get the Ukraine aid through the House of Representatives.

"It's never Trump's fault"

Ben Hodges, on the other hand, sees "at least initially no positive development for Ukraine", but the former US general also admits to Deutsche Welle: "To be fair: I think the Biden administration has wasted the last few years. We could have had a much stronger, more decisive policy." The Democrat merely appeased.

It was important that the Europeans tried to convince Trump of the importance of Ukraine and to adequately fund its military. Kiev's victory would also have economic advantages, believes Hodgens. "If Ukraine fails, it will be because the United States and Germany have turned their backs on it."

John Bolton also does not believe that Trump will make a difference in Ukraine. Any negotiations will fail, predicts Trump's former security advisor on Times Radio. "And that won't be Trump's fault, because it's never Trump's fault. It will be Zelensky's fault or Putin's fault, and given the history, it will probably be Zelensky's fault."

Bolton fears a chain reaction: "If Trump is no longer determined to help Ukraine, other countries in Europe will welcome that. It would be an opportunity to turn over a new leaf. That's why I'm very worried about what will happen in Ukraine." The 75-year-old does not believe it is realistic for the Europeans to set up their own army. "Good luck with that," he says dryly.