Switzerland have their backs to the wall in the Nations League. The last few games could also have an impact on the group draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The threat of dropping out of pot 1 looms.
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- The Nati face relegation to League B in the Nations League. However, this would not be important in terms of World Cup qualification.
- What is important from a Swiss perspective is that other nations do not miss out on the Nations League quarter-finals. In the worst-case scenario, the Nati could fall into Pot 2 in the World Cup qualifying group draw.
- Only the group winners of the World Cup qualifiers qualify directly for the 2026 finals in Canada, Mexico and the USA. In Pot 1, Switzerland would avoid the top nations.
National team director Pierluigi Tami said it before the first game in this Nations League campaign: they want to use the games to drive forward the transition in the national team - the big goal is to qualify for the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the USA. The draw for the qualifying groups will take place on 13 December, with qualifying then starting in March 2025.
There will be twelve groups of four or five in the qualifiers, with only the group winners qualifying directly for the World Cup. To avoid a tough opponent, Switzerland are desperate to be drawn from pot 1, which is currently the case, but the final matches in the Nations League could see the national team slip out of pot 1.
The Nations League table is decisive for the allocation of the qualifying draw pots. The eight quarter-finalists, i.e. the first and second-placed teams in League A, are placed in Pot 1. It is already clear that Switzerland will miss out on the quarter-finals.
Nati is dependent on support
The four European nations that are best placed in the world rankings but missed out on the top two places in League A in the Nations League will fill lottery pot 1. Switzerland currently occupies 10th place among the European teams in the world rankings - and would therefore also be in pot 1 in the event of relegation.
However, should four nations ranked ahead of Switzerland miss out on the Nations League quarter-finals, the national team would slip into pot 2, meaning that at least one top opponent would be waiting in the World Cup qualifiers.
One thing is already clear: England from League B will claim one of these four places. As will a team from the trio of Italy, France and Belgium, who play for first and second place in the same group and are all ranked ahead of Switzerland.
If Portugal or Croatia (Group 1 with Poland and Scotland) and Germany or the Netherlands (Group 3 with Hungary and Bosnia-Herzegovina) also miss out on the Nations League quarter-finals, Switzerland will end up in Pot 2.
Victory against Serbia could be important for World Cup qualifying
With a view to the World Cup qualifying draw, it doesn't really matter whether Switzerland are relegated from the Nations League or not. What is more important is that Portugal, Croatia, Germany and the Netherlands do not slip up.
Theoretically, Denmark could also overtake Switzerland in the world rankings, but finish third behind Serbia in the Nations League group and thus pose a further threat to Switzerland's place in pot 1. However, the Nati could ruin this scenario themselves with a win against the Serbs on Friday.
Back to the World Cup qualifiers: In addition to the twelve group winners who qualify directly, four other nations will receive a ticket for the 2026 World Cup. These four starting places will be awarded in March 2026 as part of a World Cup play-off. The twelve group runners-up from the World Cup qualifiers and the four best-ranked Nations League group winners who did not qualify for the finals via the World Cup qualifiers will take part.
