These are the teams' chances ManCity 37 percent out ++ Bayern need a miracle to qualify directly for the round of 16

Luca Betschart

29.1.2025

Two teams are already in the round of 16, nine teams have been eliminated early. For all other teams, everything is at stake in the Champions League today. Here are the odds.

No time? blue News summarizes for you

  • In the Champions League, the big showdown of the league phase is coming up on Wednesday. All 36 teams are in action at the same time and are fighting to progress. You can watch all the games live on blue Sport.
  • With Liverpool and Barcelona, only two teams have secured a direct place in the round of 16 so far. Behind them, the tension is high.
  • blue Sport provides you with an overview of the clubs' chances and who is facing elimination.

Curtain up for the biggest Champions League evening of all time! On Monster Wednesday, all 36 teams in the top flight will be in action at the same time and will play off in the final round of the newly introduced league phase to see who advances to the knockout phase.

The teams in places 1-8 in the table secure a direct ticket to the round of 16, while the teams in places 9-24 advance to the play-offs. The starting position promises to be very exciting and numerous scenarios are possible. blue Sport provides you with an overview.

A duel for 1st place

Liverpool and Barcelona are the only contenders who can no longer be ousted from the top eight and have already secured their place in the round of 16 before the last match and are fighting for first place in the table. The Reds have the advantage: Liverpool have 21 points in their account and, according to Opta's predictions, have an 89% chance of finishing first.

Apart from the leading duo, no club has a direct ticket to the round of 16. At least the teams in places 3-18 can plan for the knockout phase and no longer drop out of the top 24. Who will make it into the top 8, on the other hand, remains to be seen.

The race for direct qualification for the round of 16

However, things are looking very good for third-placed Arsenal and fourth-placed Inter Milan. The probability of Arsenal missing out on direct qualification for the round of 16 is less than 0.1 percent. The figure for Inter is also just over 2 percent. Atlético Madrid (5th place) and Milan (6th place) are also in the top 8 in the final ranking with a probability of around 82% and 75% respectively.

The situation is different for Atalanta, who have to face Barcelona at the end of the league phase. Although the Bergamo side are currently in seventh place, their chances of a direct ticket to the round of 16 are just 33% according to the Opta prediction model. Bayer Leverkusen, on the other hand, who are currently eighth, are given 74 percent chances.

However, teams that are currently ranked just behind the top eight clubs also have intact chances.

These teams could still make it into the top 8

  • 9th place: Aston Villa -> chance of reaching the round of 16: 50 percent
  • 10th place: Monaco -> chance of reaching the round of 16: 7 percent
  • 11th place: Feyenoord -> chance of reaching the round of 16: 15 percent
  • 12th place: OSC Lille -> chance of reaching the round of 16: 30 percent
  • 13th place: Stade Brest -> chance of reaching the round of 16: 7 percent
  • Rank 14: Dortmund -> Chance of reaching the round of 16: 11 percent
  • Rank 15: Bayern -> Chance of reaching the round of 16: 9 percent
  • 16th place: Real Madrid -> chance of reaching the round of 16: 4 percent
  • 17th place: Juventus -> chance of reaching the round of 16: 1 percent
  • 18th place: Celtic -> chance of reaching the round of 16: < 1 percent

The fight against elimination

For the teams ranked 19-27, European survival is at stake on Wednesday evening. 9 remaining clubs are battling it out for the 6 remaining places in the knockout phase. In the middle of it all are the heavyweights Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain.

These teams are fighting for a ticket to the knockout phase

  • 19th place: PSV Eindhoven -> chance of play-offs: 100 percent
  • 20th place: Bruges -> chance of play-offs: 95 percent
  • Rank 21: Benfica Lisbon -> Chance of play-offs: 83 percent
  • Rank 22: Paris Saint-Germain -> Chance of playoffs: 87 percent
  • Rank 23: Sporting Lisbon -> Chance of playoffs: 91 percent
  • 24th place: VfB Stuttgart -> chance of playoffs: 66 percent
  • 25th place: Manchester City -> chance of playoffs: 63 percent
  • Rank 26: Dinamo Zagreb -> Chance of playoffs: 16 percent
  • 27th place: Shakhtar Donetsk -> chance of play-offs: 0 percent

The starting position in the direct duel between VfB Stuttgart and PSG is explosive. A draw would ensure that both clubs remain in the top 24 in the table. PSG would definitely progress with a point, VfB 99%. In this case, Stuttgart could only be eliminated if Dinamo Zagreb win by at least seven goals to one against AC Milan.

Manchester City will be eliminated if they fail to win at home against Bruges. However, a win will automatically guarantee progression, as Bruges and a team from the direct match between VfB and PSG will be overtaken in the minimum.

Clarification: PSV Eindhoven could theoretically finish in 25th place, but the results are so statistically unrealistic that this scenario does not appear in the prediction model. If there is a rounded 0, the probability is at least 0.1 percent. The reverse is also true for Schachtar's chances of saving 24th place, which are also only in the per mille range. All percentages in this article are rounded to decimal places.

Videos from the department