Weather forecast Zurich faces up to 57 hot days in the future
The number of hot days will increase in German-speaking countries. The only question is how much: instead of 8 to 9 such days as before, there could be 27 to 57 in 2100.
08.11.2024, 18:55
SDA
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- Average temperatures in German-speaking countries will rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 if the climate continues to warm at this rate.
- That would be 4.0 to 7.5 degrees more than in pre-industrial times.
- In Zurich, the number of hot days could rise from 8 to 9 to 27 to 57, according to MeteoSwiss.
- In Germany, the number could rise from 7 to over 40, in Austria even to 60 to 100.
According to model simulations, average temperatures in German-speaking countries would rise by a further 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century if global CO2 emissions continue unabated. Among other things, this would lead to a drastic increase in hot days.
These are the findings of a current overview paper published today by the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss) and the national weather services of Switzerland and Austria.
According to the paper, the average temperature in such a scenario in these three countries would be 4.0 to 7.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
What influence does Trump have?
"This would have a massive impact - including a further increase in heat stress, even less snow at low altitudes and more and more intense heavy rainfall events," says the paper from the three weather services. They want to use this to promote more climate protection ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29).
COP29 begins on Monday, November 11 in the Azerbaijani capital Baku under difficult circumstances - partly due to the election of Donald Trump, known as a climate change denier, as the new US president.
With "consistent global climate protection", model simulations suggest that global warming in German-speaking countries could level off just above the current level.
Up to 57 hot days in Zurich
If global greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the simulations suggest that this would lead to a multiplication of hot days with temperatures of at least 30 degrees, among other things.
According to MeteoSwiss, the average number of heat days without climate protection is expected to increase from the current 8 to 9 to 27 to 57 heat days per year at the Zurich measurement site by the end of the century.
In Austria, the number of extremely hot days at lower altitudes in such a scenario would even be 60 to 100, according to the weather services, and thus in a "currently still completely unimaginable range", as the weather services explained.
There are currently seven hot days in Germany, with over 40 expected.
