Nobel Prize 2024 Two Swiss among the favorites

Ahead of the Nobel Prize ceremony in Stockholm at the beginning of October, the data company Clarivate has chosen the favorites for the prizes. Michele Parrinello and Christoph Gerber are among the favorites. However, the accuracy of the predictions is modest in each case.

Favorite 1: Gerber for the Nobel Prize in Physics

Gerber from the University of Basel could therefore be awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for the development of the atomic force microscope. Gerber introduced this high-resolution microscope in 1986. With this technique, the object to be examined is not viewed through a lens as with a light microscope. Instead, a kind of feeler scans over it, a tiny tip on a spring bar.

The spring bar is deflected by attractive and repulsive forces emanating from molecules and atoms. This deflection is recorded and converted into a digital image using software. The atomic force microscope is of great importance for various branches of research. For example, researchers have been able to use it to precisely position individual atoms and thus create new structures, for example for tiny electronic components or new types of sensors for medical diagnostics.

Favorite 2: Parrinello for the Nobel Prize in Chemistry

According to Clarivate, Parrinello, who conducted research at ETH Zurich and the Università della Svizzera italiana in Lugano (TI), could receive the Nobel Prize in Chemistry together with his colleague Roberto Car, who conducts research in the USA. This is for the development of the Car-Parrinello method. The method depicts the interaction of moving atoms via quantum mechanics.

This enables researchers to precisely observe the movement of individual atoms in different systems. This allows them to develop more efficient chemical processes or find new drugs, for example. It is also possible to simulate the properties of materials that researchers have little access to, such as gases and rocks from the Earth's interior or from Jupiter.

How accurate are the predictions?

Clarivate's predictions are based on the number of highly cited and therefore authoritative papers published by researchers in the individual disciplines. Every year, the Group uses this to compile a list of researchers who are worthy of a Nobel Prize. Since 2002, Clarivate has selected 443 such "Citation Laureates", 75 of whom have actually received the Nobel Prize.

For example, Clarivate predicted the Nobel Prize for the Swiss physicists Didier Queloz and Michel Mayor - albeit six years too early.

More than half of the researchers listed are from the USA, five from the UK, two from Switzerland, and one or one each from Germany, Israel and Japan.

SDA