Forecast adjusted Stadler suffers from storms and problems in Berlin

The recent storms have hit Stadler Rail hard, leading to production delays and an adjustment to the forecasts for 2024. A major order from Berlin is also affected.

The recent severe weather events have had a considerable impact on train manufacturer Stadler Rail. Production in Spain in particular was severely affected by the natural disasters at the end of October.

Although the plant itself and the approximately 3,000 employees were unharmed, several external warehouses were damaged. This led to considerable supply bottlenecks, as around 30 of Stadler Valencia's suppliers are no longer able to deliver the required components.

As a result, the plant has to operate at reduced capacity, which means that 150,000 to 200,000 production hours will be postponed until 2025. The planned delivery of vehicles will be delayed accordingly.

Challenges in the supply chain

The supplier Constellium in Valais is also struggling with the consequences of flooding at its plant in June. The manufacturer of aluminum profiles does not expect to be able to catch up until the end of August 2025. In Austria, a Stadler commissioning center was also flooded in September, which poses further challenges in the supply chain.

Problems in Berlin

Irrespective of the severe weather events, Stadler Rail is facing other difficulties in Berlin. After winning a major tender from Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe (BVG) in 2019, there were delays due to an appeal by Alstom and production problems as a result of the Covid pandemic.

Most recently, a software problem arose, further delaying the delivery of the ordered cars. So far, only 376 of the 1,500 wagons have been ordered, resulting in underutilization of the Berlin-Pankow plant.

Adjustment of the company's forecasts

Due to these challenges, Stadler Rail expects the EBIT margin to fall by up to 2 percentage points in 2024. Originally, the company had expected profitability of over 5 percent. The revenue target of CHF 3.5 to 3.7 billion for 2024 can also no longer be achieved, as part of the revenue will be postponed to 2025. The exact amount of the shift is currently still unclear.

Stadler Rail has also suspended its guidance for the 2025 and 2026 financial years, as the long-term impact of current events cannot yet be assessed. The company plans to present an updated financial plan in the first quarter of 2025, once the budget for 2025 has been revised. A "catch-up program" is currently being developed to address the backlogs as quickly as possible, similar to what was successfully implemented after the Covid pandemic.

SDA