Is the SPD revolt now looming? Scholz is not backing down from his candidacy - but resistance is growing

Chancellor Olaf Scholz formulated his claim to be the SPD's candidate for chancellor again at an early stage. However, resistance within the party is now growing. The decision is likely to be made in the next two weeks.

DPA

17.11.2024, 21:14

17.11.2024, 21:46

dpa

Despite growing resistance within the SPD, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is not backing down from his claim to be his party's candidate for chancellor in the early general election. "The SPD and I are prepared to enter this debate, incidentally with the aim of winning," said Scholz before leaving for the G20 summit in Brazil when asked whether he would insist on running for chancellor under all circumstances.

Shortly beforehand, the open resistance within the SPD had reached a new level: after a number of local politicians, Joe Weingarten was the first member of the Bundestag to speak out in favor of entering the election campaign with the far more popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) at the helm.

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However, this is not possible without Scholz backing down. He had already declared his candidacy for chancellor in July, when the break-up of the traffic light coalition was still a long way off: "I will run as chancellor to become chancellor again," he said at the time. His plan to turn the traffic light coalition into a project for more than one electoral term has now failed prematurely. And with him as chancellor, the SPD has not been able to get out of its polling slump of well below 20 percent for months. The gap to the CDU/CSU is currently 16 to 18 percentage points.

Party executive hesitates on nomination

The party leadership stands behind the Chancellor and has repeatedly emphasized its support for him. However, even after the decision for a new election on February 23, it has refrained from nominating him for the time being - and thus made the candidate debate possible.

The supporters of Scholz as a candidate for chancellor have so far placed their support for Pistorius in the third and fourth tiers and played it down. Joe Weingarten is now the first member of the Bundestag to come out of the closet. "It is my clear opinion that we should go into the election campaign with Boris Pistorius," he told the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. "He has the drive, the closeness to the people and the ability to say what needs to be done in clear German. And that's what our country needs now." Weingarten is a member of the conservative Seeheimer Kreis in the Bundestag parliamentary group.

A question of survival for the SPD?

Before him, a number of local politicians had already openly spoken out in favor of Pistorius. The mood in the party is clearly in favor of a change, Serdar Yüksel, chairman of the SPD sub-district in Bochum, recently told Stern magazine. "If you asked the members of the SPD, 80 percent would be in favor of Pistorius." Whether Scholz runs again is not just his personal decision. "The question now is whether the SPD will survive."

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The SPD leadership has been trying in vain for days to counter the swelling debate. "Olaf Scholz is the chancellor. And everyone who bears responsibility in the SPD has also made it clear in recent days that we stand behind him," said party leader Lars Klingbeil again at the weekend on the sidelines of an SPD event in Essen. It was now important for the SPD "to deal with the content of the Bundestag election campaign, but not to discuss personnel".

Müntefering: "Of course opposing candidates are possible"

But the appeals are not working. Shortly before the Chancellor's departure for the G20 summit, Franz Müntefering, probably the most popular former party leader still alive, spoke out. The 84-year-old called for a decision to be made at a party conference, if need be in a contest: "Of course, opposing candidates in one's own party are possible in principle and are not a sign of helplessness. They are practiced democracy," he told the "Tagesspiegel".

Mexico trip canceled: "There's a lot going on here"

In this situation, Scholz is now away for almost three days. The summit in Rio de Janeiro will focus on combating poverty, reforming international institutions such as the UN, IMF and World Bank, climate protection and, of course, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. On the sidelines, the Chancellor will hold bilateral talks, including with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Scholz had actually planned to travel on to Mexico on Tuesday evening, the only Latin American G20 country that he has not yet visited in his almost three years in office. However, this part of the trip was canceled at short notice "due to the current situation" in order to "be back here in Berlin early", according to those close to him. "There's a lot going on here."

Decision by November 30th

Scholz lands back in Berlin on Wednesday morning. It should then only be a matter of days before the decision on the K issue is made. The party leadership will no longer wait until the party conference planned for January 11. An "election victory conference" is planned for November 30 in Berlin, where the candidate for chancellor will make his first major appearance.

A withdrawal by Scholz was long considered unthinkable. However, in an interview published by the "Süddeutsche Zeitung" on Friday, he opened the door at least a crack. When asked whether he could imagine reconsidering his candidacy under certain circumstances, he answered evasively. "Well, the circumstances of the next election are pretty clear," he said. When asked what would happen if the polls were to deteriorate, he added: "The reliability of such polls is manageable, as the last general election showed, even if some people quickly forgot that."

Polls play an important role

His answer on Sunday also lacked the clarity with which he had first asserted his candidacy in the summer. In fact, the polls could still play a role in deciding the K question in the coming days. In an Insa survey commissioned by "Bild am Sonntag" and published on Saturday, the SPD gained one percentage point - but at 16% is still 16 points behind the CDU/CSU with 32%. Further poll results will follow in the next few days, which the party leadership will be monitoring closely.

Advice from Joe Biden in Rio?

Incidentally, Scholz will meet someone in Rio who may be able to give him some advice: outgoing US President Joe Biden. After doubts about his fitness and massive public pressure, the 81-year-old withdrew his candidacy for re-election in favor of his Vice President Kamala Harris. However, it didn't help. Harris lost to Republican Donald Trump, who will return to the White House on January 20.