Sobering climate study Researchers consider achieving the 1.5-degree target "implausible"

A Hamburg research project is investigating social developments that influence climate protection. In this year's report, the researchers also look at climate adaptation.

A study by a research project at the University of Hamburg continues to believe that achieving the 1.5-degree target is implausible. Among other things, the authors point to the behavior of companies, consumer trends and investments in fossil fuels. This is the conclusion of the "Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024", which has been published since 2021 and examines social developments that influence climate protection. "Massive investments are being made in oil, gas and coal again," said co-author and sociology professor Anita Engels.

In the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the international community set itself the goal of keeping global warming well below two degrees and, if possible, limiting it to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. Many climate experts believe that the 1.5 degree threshold cannot be achieved.

Focus on climate adaptation

What is new is that the authors have dealt extensively with climate adaptation. The researchers have presented several examples, including Hamburg, the north-east of Lower Saxony and São Paulo in Brazil. The study divides the quality of adaptation measures into three categories: crisis management, preventive and sustainable adaptation.

"Where adaptation is not thought through, side effects can undo the successes," said co-author and geography professor Beate Ratter. Coastal protection measures could initially help with flooding, but could wash away sediments and damage coral reefs in the long term. Forests planted with monocultures are also particularly susceptible to pest infestation.

The last category, sustainable adaptation, states: "Such measures have a long-term effect, reduce risks and are co-designed and supported by the local population." In none of the cases did the scientists identify so-called sustainable adaptation. However, there are initial approaches at three locations: Hamburg, North Friesland and Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon, Vietnam) are mentioned.