Politics Parliamentary election in France: right-wing nationalists ahead in first round

According to initial projections, the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National is ahead in the first round of the early parliamentary elections in France. Together with its allies, it achieved 34 to 34.2 percent, as reported by the broadcasters TF1 and France 2 on Sunday after the polls closed.

President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp came third with 20.3 to 21.5 percent, behind the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire with 28.1 to 29.1 percent. However, how many seats the blocs will get in the National Assembly will only be decided in run-off elections on July 7.

The result is a bitter defeat for French President Emmanuel Macron. He had been counting on the early election to increase the relative majority of his centrist forces in the lower house. This now seems extremely unlikely. If, according to forecasts, neither camp wins an absolute majority, France would face tough negotiations to form a coalition.

Initial forecasts assume that Marine Le Pen's right-wing populists and their allies could become the strongest force in the lower house with 230 to 280 seats. However, they could fall short of an absolute majority with 289 seats.

The left could also make gains and end up with 125 to 200 seats. Macron's Liberals are in danger of dropping to just 60 to 100 seats. However, it is difficult to say exactly how the seats will be distributed. Before the second round of voting, the parties can still forge local alliances that will influence the outcome of the election.

A coming together of the fundamentally different political players for a government alliance after the election is currently not foreseeable. Without a clear majority in the National Assembly, France would be threatened with gridlock. As the National Assembly can topple the government, it needs a majority in the parliamentary chamber to do its job.