Collapse possible in the 2030s North Atlantic Current weakened - will we all freeze soon?
According to a recent study, the North Atlantic Current could collapse as early as the 2030s. The effects would be dramatic.
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- According to a recent study, the North Atlantic Current could collapse with greater probability and much earlier than previously assumed.
- This is the result of a recent study by researchers at Utrecht University, who worked with state-of-the-art models.
- The consequences for Europe: colder average temperatures and even more severe weather extremes.
- One factor that could accelerate the drying up of the current has not even been taken into account: the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
The North Atlantic Current is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports water masses through the Atlantic. As such, it functions as the warm water heating system of Europe, so to speak.
Several studies in recent years indicate that AMOC is on the way to collapse - weakened by warmer sea temperatures and disturbed salinity due to climate change.
According to studies by researchers at Utrecht University, such a collapse could occur much earlier than previously assumed, namely as early as the 2030s, quite possibly by 2050. The study is in the process of peer review and has not yet been published in a journal.
It would get colder in Europe
"Until a few years ago, we were discussing whether a collapse was even possible, as a kind of low-probability, high-impact risk," Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at the University of Potsdam who was not involved in the latest research, toldCNN. "And now it looks very much like it."
The effects would be dramatic, write the researchers involved in the study. The Arctic ice would advance southwards and, after 100 years, extend as far as the south coast of England. The average temperature in Europe would fall, as it would in North America - including parts of the USA. In the Amazon rainforest, the seasons would be completely reversed: the current dry season would become the rainy months and vice versa, the report continues.
For their investigations, the researchers from Utrecht University used state-of-the-art models and identified an area in the South Atlantic as the optimal place to monitor changes in circulation and use observation data for the first time. They analyzed the temperatures and salinity of the oceans there in order to refine previous predictions of when the AMOC could reach its turning point.
However, there is also criticism of the models. For example, they do not take into account the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Large quantities of freshwater are detaching from the ice sheet there and flowing into the North Atlantic, affecting one of the driving forces of the circulation: salinity. "There is already an enormous influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic, which will bring the system to a complete standstill," warns Rahmstorf.