Following a series of violent earthquakes in Iceland, a possible volcanic eruption is expected at Europe's largest glacier. Magma is accumulating around ten kilometers below the Bárdarbunga volcano in the northwest of the Vatnajökull glacier, Kristín Jónsdóttir, head of the Icelandic Meteorological Agency's volcano and earthquake department, told the German Press Agency.
In recent months, activity has increased and major earthquakes have been experienced in the region because pressure is building up underground. "And that can only lead to one thing: Eventually there will be an eruption," says the expert. However, it is extremely difficult to predict when this will happen - it could even take years before it happens. There could also be very different types of eruptions. If an eruption were to occur under the glacier, this would lead to catastrophic floods, warned Jónsdóttir.
Vatnajökull - Europe's largest glacier
Vatnajökull is the largest glacier in Europe outside the polar regions. Around the huge Bárdarbunga volcano system, which is partly covered by the ice colossus and partly not, the most violent earthquake swarm in ten years occurred on Tuesday - back then there was an eruption that lasted for months. An estimated 130 earthquakes have now been recorded within a few hours, including 17 with a magnitude of 3.0 or higher and one with a magnitude of 5.1.
As a result, the Icelandic Civil Defense Authority declared an uncertainty level, which means that it is closely monitoring the situation and its potential threat to people, the environment and infrastructure. Since then, the earth has calmed down again for the time being.
Memories of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010
The volcanic hazard at an Icelandic glacier inevitably brings to mind the eruption at Eyjafjallajökull, which paralyzed international air traffic for days with a kilometer-high ash cloud in 2010. As was the case back then, the current eruption was also a volcano covered by a glacier, but the one back then was significantly smaller than Bárdarbunga, says volcanologist Jónsdóttir.
In the event of an eruption within the glacier area, a similar situation to that time could be expected, she says - including an ash cloud with possible consequences for air traffic. However, everything depends on how strong the eruption is, how long it lasts and where the wind blows. At the same time, lessons were learned from Eyjafjallajökull, which means that the impact on air traffic will probably be less this time.
Next eruption near Reykjavik is imminent
The situation at Bárdarbunga is very different to that on the Reykjanes Peninsula southwest of the capital Reykjavik, where so-called fissure eruptions have been occurring repeatedly since 2021. Each time, a kilometer-long crack in the earth forms, from which red-hot lava gushes out.
Despite the regularity of these natural spectacles, Jónsdóttir points out that the threat of such eruptions is always real - and that the next one is already imminent. "We expect the next eruption at the beginning of February or the end of January, so very soon," she says. However, its consequences are largely localized, while Bárdarbunga could affect a much larger region.